Recent Houthi-imposed maritime restrictions targeting Saudi-linked vessels have driven sharp declines in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with weekly volumes stabilizing near 266 after an initial 24% drop from pre-blockade levels around 354. This geopolitical pressure has prompted widespread rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope, elevating voyage costs, fuel consumption, and hull insurance premiums while compressing traffic into lower ranges. Market-implied odds for the August 10 week—<180 at 41.5% and 180-199 at 32.5%—reflect trader consensus on sustained suppression amid moderate ongoing threats, though closely matched probabilities highlight uncertainty over potential de-escalation, selective carrier resumption, or further attacks that could widen the outcome spread.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日180未満 41%
180〜199 32%
220以上 13%
200-219 6.9%
$11,219 Vol.
$11,219 Vol.
2026/08/16
180未満
41%
180〜199
32%
200-219
7%
220以上
13%
180未満 41%
180〜199 32%
220以上 13%
200-219 6.9%
$11,219 Vol.
$11,219 Vol.
2026/08/16
180未満
$5,400 Vol.
41%
180〜199
$1,869 Vol.
32%
200-219
$749 Vol.
7%
220以上
$3,200 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi-imposed maritime restrictions targeting Saudi-linked vessels have driven sharp declines in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with weekly volumes stabilizing near 266 after an initial 24% drop from pre-blockade levels around 354. This geopolitical pressure has prompted widespread rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope, elevating voyage costs, fuel consumption, and hull insurance premiums while compressing traffic into lower ranges. Market-implied odds for the August 10 week—<180 at 41.5% and 180-199 at 32.5%—reflect trader consensus on sustained suppression amid moderate ongoing threats, though closely matched probabilities highlight uncertainty over potential de-escalation, selective carrier resumption, or further attacks that could widen the outcome spread.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
マーケット開始日： Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
音量
$11,219終了日
2026/08/16マーケット開始日
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi-imposed maritime restrictions targeting Saudi-linked vessels have driven sharp declines in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with weekly volumes stabilizing near 266 after an initial 24% drop from pre-blockade levels around 354. This geopolitical pressure has prompted widespread rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope, elevating voyage costs, fuel consumption, and hull insurance premiums while compressing traffic into lower ranges. Market-implied odds for the August 10 week—<180 at 41.5% and 180-199 at 32.5%—reflect trader consensus on sustained suppression amid moderate ongoing threats, though closely matched probabilities highlight uncertainty over potential de-escalation, selective carrier resumption, or further attacks that could widen the outcome spread.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
音量
$11,219終了日
2026/08/16マーケット開始日
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi-imposed maritime restrictions targeting Saudi-linked vessels have driven sharp declines in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with weekly volumes stabilizing near 266 after an initial 24% drop from pre-blockade levels around 354. This geopolitical pressure has prompted widespread rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope, elevating voyage costs, fuel consumption, and hull insurance premiums while compressing traffic into lower ranges. Market-implied odds for the August 10 week—<180 at 41.5% and 180-199 at 32.5%—reflect trader consensus on sustained suppression amid moderate ongoing threats, though closely matched probabilities highlight uncertainty over potential de-escalation, selective carrier resumption, or further attacks that could widen the outcome spread.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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