Houthi-imposed maritime restrictions targeting Saudi-linked vessels, coupled with recent drone and missile incidents in the southern Red Sea, represent the dominant driver behind Polymarket's implied probabilities, with the <160 weekly transits outcome holding the lead at 43.5%. Shipping data from early August show volumes stabilizing near 266 transits after a sharp 24% decline from pre-blockade levels of 354, as carriers reroute around the Cape of Good Hope amid elevated risk premiums. Trader consensus reflects these verified reductions in tanker and bulk flows rather than seasonal norms, though any de-escalation in Red Sea hostilities could support a rebound toward the 180-199 band priced at 24%.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日160未満 44%
180〜199 24%
200以上 20%
160-179 14%
新規
新規
2026/08/23
160未満
44%
160-179
14%
180〜199
24%
200以上
20%
160未満 44%
180〜199 24%
200以上 20%
160-179 14%
新規
新規
2026/08/23
160未満
$3,077 Vol.
44%
160-179
$1,516 Vol.
14%
180〜199
$1,405 Vol.
24%
200以上
$1,243 Vol.
20%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Houthi-imposed maritime restrictions targeting Saudi-linked vessels, coupled with recent drone and missile incidents in the southern Red Sea, represent the dominant driver behind Polymarket's implied probabilities, with the <160 weekly transits outcome holding the lead at 43.5%. Shipping data from early August show volumes stabilizing near 266 transits after a sharp 24% decline from pre-blockade levels of 354, as carriers reroute around the Cape of Good Hope amid elevated risk premiums. Trader consensus reflects these verified reductions in tanker and bulk flows rather than seasonal norms, though any de-escalation in Red Sea hostilities could support a rebound toward the 180-199 band priced at 24%.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
マーケット開始日： Aug 14, 2026, 5:29 PM ET
音量
$7,241終了日
2026/08/23マーケット開始日
Aug 14, 2026, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Houthi-imposed maritime restrictions targeting Saudi-linked vessels, coupled with recent drone and missile incidents in the southern Red Sea, represent the dominant driver behind Polymarket's implied probabilities, with the <160 weekly transits outcome holding the lead at 43.5%. Shipping data from early August show volumes stabilizing near 266 transits after a sharp 24% decline from pre-blockade levels of 354, as carriers reroute around the Cape of Good Hope amid elevated risk premiums. Trader consensus reflects these verified reductions in tanker and bulk flows rather than seasonal norms, though any de-escalation in Red Sea hostilities could support a rebound toward the 180-199 band priced at 24%.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
音量
$7,241終了日
2026/08/23マーケット開始日
Aug 14, 2026, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Houthi-imposed maritime restrictions targeting Saudi-linked vessels, coupled with recent drone and missile incidents in the southern Red Sea, represent the dominant driver behind Polymarket's implied probabilities, with the <160 weekly transits outcome holding the lead at 43.5%. Shipping data from early August show volumes stabilizing near 266 transits after a sharp 24% decline from pre-blockade levels of 354, as carriers reroute around the Cape of Good Hope amid elevated risk premiums. Trader consensus reflects these verified reductions in tanker and bulk flows rather than seasonal norms, though any de-escalation in Red Sea hostilities could support a rebound toward the 180-199 band priced at 24%.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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