**Trader sentiment for Bab el-Mandeb transits the week of September 21 centers on stabilized but reduced volumes amid Houthi coastal advances.** Houthi forces seized key positions including Mokha and Perim Island around September 10–11, triggering a short-term dip in daily crossings to the low-to-mid 20s before activity rebounded to roughly 24–35 vessels per day in subsequent weeks, aligning with the 190–209 range priced at 62% implied probability. Broader Hormuz disruptions and selective targeting of Saudi-linked tonnage have sustained rerouting incentives and war-risk premiums, capping throughput below pre-2023 norms while allowing some Asia–Europe carriers to resume Suez services. Recent Houthi ministry data citing 198 commercial transits over five days in late September reinforces the market’s consensus around this moderate band, with uncertainty over dark transits and potential last-minute volatility.