Idaho's 2nd congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat, reflected in trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 93.5%. Incumbent Mike Simpson secured the party's nomination in the May 2026 primary with over 63% of the vote against two challengers and faces Democrat Elinor Gilbreath in the November general election. The district's voting patterns, Simpson's long tenure since 1999, and consistent Republican performance in recent cycles, including a 61% margin in 2024, underpin the current pricing. Early 2026 polling and Cook Political Report's Solid R rating align with this positioning. Scenarios that could shift outcomes include a major scandal involving the incumbent, significant national Democratic momentum altering turnout, or unexpected health or retirement developments before Election Day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$30,364 Vol.
$30,364 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
94%
民主党
7%
$30,364 Vol.
$30,364 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
$13,015 Vol.
94%
民主党
$17,350 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Idaho's 2nd congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat, reflected in trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 93.5%. Incumbent Mike Simpson secured the party's nomination in the May 2026 primary with over 63% of the vote against two challengers and faces Democrat Elinor Gilbreath in the November general election. The district's voting patterns, Simpson's long tenure since 1999, and consistent Republican performance in recent cycles, including a 61% margin in 2024, underpin the current pricing. Early 2026 polling and Cook Political Report's Solid R rating align with this positioning. Scenarios that could shift outcomes include a major scandal involving the incumbent, significant national Democratic momentum altering turnout, or unexpected health or retirement developments before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
音量
$30,364終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Idaho's 2nd congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat, reflected in trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 93.5%. Incumbent Mike Simpson secured the party's nomination in the May 2026 primary with over 63% of the vote against two challengers and faces Democrat Elinor Gilbreath in the November general election. The district's voting patterns, Simpson's long tenure since 1999, and consistent Republican performance in recent cycles, including a 61% margin in 2024, underpin the current pricing. Early 2026 polling and Cook Political Report's Solid R rating align with this positioning. Scenarios that could shift outcomes include a major scandal involving the incumbent, significant national Democratic momentum altering turnout, or unexpected health or retirement developments before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$30,364終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Idaho's 2nd congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat, reflected in trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 93.5%. Incumbent Mike Simpson secured the party's nomination in the May 2026 primary with over 63% of the vote against two challengers and faces Democrat Elinor Gilbreath in the November general election. The district's voting patterns, Simpson's long tenure since 1999, and consistent Republican performance in recent cycles, including a 61% margin in 2024, underpin the current pricing. Early 2026 polling and Cook Political Report's Solid R rating align with this positioning. Scenarios that could shift outcomes include a major scandal involving the incumbent, significant national Democratic momentum altering turnout, or unexpected health or retirement developments before Election Day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問