Idaho’s 2nd congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat heading into the November 2026 general election, with the party holding a 93.5 percent implied probability in trader consensus. Incumbent Mike Simpson secured the Republican nomination in the May 2026 primary, continuing a pattern of strong performance in eastern and northern Idaho where Democratic infrastructure is limited and the seat has not elected a Democrat since 2008. Forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Republican based on consistent partisan lean and low turnover risk. Scenarios that could narrow the margin include late-cycle developments such as an unforeseen candidate health issue, a significant national political shift affecting turnout, or an unusually high Democratic mobilization, though these remain low-probability events given historical voting patterns and the absence of competitive primary challenges on the Republican side.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$30,364 Vol.
$30,364 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
94%
民主党
7%
$30,364 Vol.
$30,364 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
$13,015 Vol.
94%
民主党
$17,350 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Idaho’s 2nd congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat heading into the November 2026 general election, with the party holding a 93.5 percent implied probability in trader consensus. Incumbent Mike Simpson secured the Republican nomination in the May 2026 primary, continuing a pattern of strong performance in eastern and northern Idaho where Democratic infrastructure is limited and the seat has not elected a Democrat since 2008. Forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Republican based on consistent partisan lean and low turnover risk. Scenarios that could narrow the margin include late-cycle developments such as an unforeseen candidate health issue, a significant national political shift affecting turnout, or an unusually high Democratic mobilization, though these remain low-probability events given historical voting patterns and the absence of competitive primary challenges on the Republican side.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
音量
$30,364終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Idaho’s 2nd congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat heading into the November 2026 general election, with the party holding a 93.5 percent implied probability in trader consensus. Incumbent Mike Simpson secured the Republican nomination in the May 2026 primary, continuing a pattern of strong performance in eastern and northern Idaho where Democratic infrastructure is limited and the seat has not elected a Democrat since 2008. Forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Republican based on consistent partisan lean and low turnover risk. Scenarios that could narrow the margin include late-cycle developments such as an unforeseen candidate health issue, a significant national political shift affecting turnout, or an unusually high Democratic mobilization, though these remain low-probability events given historical voting patterns and the absence of competitive primary challenges on the Republican side.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$30,364終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Idaho’s 2nd congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat heading into the November 2026 general election, with the party holding a 93.5 percent implied probability in trader consensus. Incumbent Mike Simpson secured the Republican nomination in the May 2026 primary, continuing a pattern of strong performance in eastern and northern Idaho where Democratic infrastructure is limited and the seat has not elected a Democrat since 2008. Forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Republican based on consistent partisan lean and low turnover risk. Scenarios that could narrow the margin include late-cycle developments such as an unforeseen candidate health issue, a significant national political shift affecting turnout, or an unusually high Democratic mobilization, though these remain low-probability events given historical voting patterns and the absence of competitive primary challenges on the Republican side.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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