Following the February 2026 U.S.-Israel military operation against Iran that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and targeted military infrastructure, internal power struggles have intensified amid a leadership transition and post-war truce negotiations. Hardline factions have publicly accused figures such as President Masoud Pezeshkian and parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf of coup plotting against clerical authority and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, while opposition calls for regime change remain active but unorganized. No widely reported military or elite-led coup attempt has materialized through mid-2026, reflecting the regime’s demonstrated resilience and control over security forces. Trader consensus assigns low probability to a coup by year-end, citing structural barriers like IRGC loyalty and fragmented opposition; scheduled diplomatic developments or further leadership disputes could alter sentiment if they expose new fractures.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$2,122,612 Vol.
2026/12/31
12月31日
8%
$2,122,612 Vol.
12月31日
$81,386 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Following the February 2026 U.S.-Israel military operation against Iran that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and targeted military infrastructure, internal power struggles have intensified amid a leadership transition and post-war truce negotiations. Hardline factions have publicly accused figures such as President Masoud Pezeshkian and parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf of coup plotting against clerical authority and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, while opposition calls for regime change remain active but unorganized. No widely reported military or elite-led coup attempt has materialized through mid-2026, reflecting the regime’s demonstrated resilience and control over security forces. Trader consensus assigns low probability to a coup by year-end, citing structural barriers like IRGC loyalty and fragmented opposition; scheduled diplomatic developments or further leadership disputes could alter sentiment if they expose new fractures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
音量
$2,122,612終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Following the February 2026 U.S.-Israel military operation against Iran that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and targeted military infrastructure, internal power struggles have intensified amid a leadership transition and post-war truce negotiations. Hardline factions have publicly accused figures such as President Masoud Pezeshkian and parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf of coup plotting against clerical authority and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, while opposition calls for regime change remain active but unorganized. No widely reported military or elite-led coup attempt has materialized through mid-2026, reflecting the regime’s demonstrated resilience and control over security forces. Trader consensus assigns low probability to a coup by year-end, citing structural barriers like IRGC loyalty and fragmented opposition; scheduled diplomatic developments or further leadership disputes could alter sentiment if they expose new fractures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$2,122,612終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Following the February 2026 U.S.-Israel military operation against Iran that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and targeted military infrastructure, internal power struggles have intensified amid a leadership transition and post-war truce negotiations. Hardline factions have publicly accused figures such as President Masoud Pezeshkian and parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf of coup plotting against clerical authority and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, while opposition calls for regime change remain active but unorganized. No widely reported military or elite-led coup attempt has materialized through mid-2026, reflecting the regime’s demonstrated resilience and control over security forces. Trader consensus assigns low probability to a coup by year-end, citing structural barriers like IRGC loyalty and fragmented opposition; scheduled diplomatic developments or further leadership disputes could alter sentiment if they expose new fractures.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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