Recent escalations in the US-Israel-Iran conflict drove multiple Israeli airspace closures starting in late February 2026 after joint strikes on Iranian targets and subsequent missile and drone retaliation. Israeli authorities restricted civilian flights at Ben Gurion Airport and neighboring FIRs amid heightened risks, with similar measures recurring through mid-2026. A ceasefire announced in July 2026 prompted the European Union Aviation Safety Agency to lift its high-risk designation for Israeli airspace, allowing most regional routes to resume. Traders monitor Iranian military posturing, proxy activities, and any fresh diplomatic breakdowns that could trigger renewed threats or defensive closures. Persistent warnings from aviation authorities highlight the potential for rapid, unannounced restrictions tied to missile activity or escalation signals.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$27,128,221 Vol.
2026/07/15
8月31日
3%
$27,128,221 Vol.
8月31日
$1,096,465 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent escalations in the US-Israel-Iran conflict drove multiple Israeli airspace closures starting in late February 2026 after joint strikes on Iranian targets and subsequent missile and drone retaliation. Israeli authorities restricted civilian flights at Ben Gurion Airport and neighboring FIRs amid heightened risks, with similar measures recurring through mid-2026. A ceasefire announced in July 2026 prompted the European Union Aviation Safety Agency to lift its high-risk designation for Israeli airspace, allowing most regional routes to resume. Traders monitor Iranian military posturing, proxy activities, and any fresh diplomatic breakdowns that could trigger renewed threats or defensive closures. Persistent warnings from aviation authorities highlight the potential for rapid, unannounced restrictions tied to missile activity or escalation signals.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ET
音量
$27,128,221終了日
2026/05/31マーケット開始日
Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent escalations in the US-Israel-Iran conflict drove multiple Israeli airspace closures starting in late February 2026 after joint strikes on Iranian targets and subsequent missile and drone retaliation. Israeli authorities restricted civilian flights at Ben Gurion Airport and neighboring FIRs amid heightened risks, with similar measures recurring through mid-2026. A ceasefire announced in July 2026 prompted the European Union Aviation Safety Agency to lift its high-risk designation for Israeli airspace, allowing most regional routes to resume. Traders monitor Iranian military posturing, proxy activities, and any fresh diplomatic breakdowns that could trigger renewed threats or defensive closures. Persistent warnings from aviation authorities highlight the potential for rapid, unannounced restrictions tied to missile activity or escalation signals.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$27,128,221終了日
2026/05/31マーケット開始日
Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent escalations in the US-Israel-Iran conflict drove multiple Israeli airspace closures starting in late February 2026 after joint strikes on Iranian targets and subsequent missile and drone retaliation. Israeli authorities restricted civilian flights at Ben Gurion Airport and neighboring FIRs amid heightened risks, with similar measures recurring through mid-2026. A ceasefire announced in July 2026 prompted the European Union Aviation Safety Agency to lift its high-risk designation for Israeli airspace, allowing most regional routes to resume. Traders monitor Iranian military posturing, proxy activities, and any fresh diplomatic breakdowns that could trigger renewed threats or defensive closures. Persistent warnings from aviation authorities highlight the potential for rapid, unannounced restrictions tied to missile activity or escalation signals.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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