**As of mid-June 2026, the 2026 Iran war—launched with joint U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on February 28—has centered on air and missile campaigns targeting Iranian military infrastructure, missile sites, and leadership, rather than Israeli ground forces entering Iranian territory.** Israel has repeatedly stated it has no plans for a ground invasion of Iran, instead deploying significant ground units in southern Lebanon against Hezbollah to create buffer zones up to and beyond the Litani River. U.S. officials have discussed limited special operations or raids inside Iran, but Israeli forces are not slated to participate. Recent diplomatic momentum, including a June 14 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding set for signing on June 19 and aimed at halting hostilities within 60 days, has further reduced expectations of major new ground commitments. Ongoing exchanges in Lebanon and around the Strait of Hormuz keep regional tensions elevated, yet the absence of confirmed Israeli ground operations in Iran continues to shape trader assessments of confirmation timelines or triggers.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?
Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?
$1,535,085 Vol.
2026/06/30
June 30
<1%
July 31
4%
$1,535,085 Vol.
June 30
$205,804 Vol.
<1%
July 31
$1,964 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if participation by Israeli military personnel in a ground operation in Iran on or after February 28, 2026, is confirmed by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "ground operation" is defined as a military operation that involves Israeli military ground forces conducting operations within Iranian territory.
For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving Israeli troops on the ground within the terrestrial territory of Iran will qualify.
Official confirmation by the Israeli military of personnel operating on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Israeli military personnel operated on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as the June 25, 2025, statement by IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir confirmed that Israeli commando forces operated covertly on the ground inside Iran during the 12-day war.
Confirmations referring only to non-military Israeli intelligence activity, including operations by the Mossad or Shin Bet, as well as airstrikes, cyberattacks, standoff weapons, remote sabotage, or actions by proxies or third parties without Israeli military presence, will not alone qualify.
Incidents that would not alone suffice include the November 2025 Mossad statement indicating its agents were present during protests in Iran, or the July 31, 2024, assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, widely attributed to Mossad agents.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the Israeli military; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice. **As of mid-June 2026, the 2026 Iran war—launched with joint U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on February 28—has centered on air and missile campaigns targeting Iranian military infrastructure, missile sites, and leadership, rather than Israeli ground forces entering Iranian territory.** Israel has repeatedly stated it has no plans for a ground invasion of Iran, instead deploying significant ground units in southern Lebanon against Hezbollah to create buffer zones up to and beyond the Litani River. U.S. officials have discussed limited special operations or raids inside Iran, but Israeli forces are not slated to participate. Recent diplomatic momentum, including a June 14 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding set for signing on June 19 and aimed at halting hostilities within 60 days, has further reduced expectations of major new ground commitments. Ongoing exchanges in Lebanon and around the Strait of Hormuz keep regional tensions elevated, yet the absence of confirmed Israeli ground operations in Iran continues to shape trader assessments of confirmation timelines or triggers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if participation by Israeli military personnel in a ground operation in Iran on or after February 28, 2026, is confirmed by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "ground operation" is defined as a military operation that involves Israeli military ground forces conducting operations within Iranian territory.
For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving Israeli troops on the ground within the terrestrial territory of Iran will qualify.
Official confirmation by the Israeli military of personnel operating on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Israeli military personnel operated on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as the June 25, 2025, statement by IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir confirmed that Israeli commando forces operated covertly on the ground inside Iran during the 12-day war.
Confirmations referring only to non-military Israeli intelligence activity, including operations by the Mossad or Shin Bet, as well as airstrikes, cyberattacks, standoff weapons, remote sabotage, or actions by proxies or third parties without Israeli military presence, will not alone qualify.
Incidents that would not alone suffice include the November 2025 Mossad statement indicating its agents were present during protests in Iran, or the July 31, 2024, assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, widely attributed to Mossad agents.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the Israeli military; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "ground operation" is defined as a military operation that involves Israeli military ground forces conducting operations within Iranian territory.
For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving Israeli troops on the ground within the terrestrial territory of Iran will qualify.
Official confirmation by the Israeli military of personnel operating on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Israeli military personnel operated on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as the June 25, 2025, statement by IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir confirmed that Israeli commando forces operated covertly on the ground inside Iran during the 12-day war.
Confirmations referring only to non-military Israeli intelligence activity, including operations by the Mossad or Shin Bet, as well as airstrikes, cyberattacks, standoff weapons, remote sabotage, or actions by proxies or third parties without Israeli military presence, will not alone qualify.
Incidents that would not alone suffice include the November 2025 Mossad statement indicating its agents were present during protests in Iran, or the July 31, 2024, assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, widely attributed to Mossad agents.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the Israeli military; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
マーケット開始日： May 28, 2026, 9:00 PM ET
音量
$1,535,085終了日
2026/05/31マーケット開始日
May 28, 2026, 9:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if participation by Israeli military personnel in a ground operation in Iran on or after February 28, 2026, is confirmed by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "ground operation" is defined as a military operation that involves Israeli military ground forces conducting operations within Iranian territory.
For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving Israeli troops on the ground within the terrestrial territory of Iran will qualify.
Official confirmation by the Israeli military of personnel operating on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Israeli military personnel operated on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as the June 25, 2025, statement by IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir confirmed that Israeli commando forces operated covertly on the ground inside Iran during the 12-day war.
Confirmations referring only to non-military Israeli intelligence activity, including operations by the Mossad or Shin Bet, as well as airstrikes, cyberattacks, standoff weapons, remote sabotage, or actions by proxies or third parties without Israeli military presence, will not alone qualify.
Incidents that would not alone suffice include the November 2025 Mossad statement indicating its agents were present during protests in Iran, or the July 31, 2024, assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, widely attributed to Mossad agents.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the Israeli military; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice. **As of mid-June 2026, the 2026 Iran war—launched with joint U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on February 28—has centered on air and missile campaigns targeting Iranian military infrastructure, missile sites, and leadership, rather than Israeli ground forces entering Iranian territory.** Israel has repeatedly stated it has no plans for a ground invasion of Iran, instead deploying significant ground units in southern Lebanon against Hezbollah to create buffer zones up to and beyond the Litani River. U.S. officials have discussed limited special operations or raids inside Iran, but Israeli forces are not slated to participate. Recent diplomatic momentum, including a June 14 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding set for signing on June 19 and aimed at halting hostilities within 60 days, has further reduced expectations of major new ground commitments. Ongoing exchanges in Lebanon and around the Strait of Hormuz keep regional tensions elevated, yet the absence of confirmed Israeli ground operations in Iran continues to shape trader assessments of confirmation timelines or triggers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if participation by Israeli military personnel in a ground operation in Iran on or after February 28, 2026, is confirmed by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "ground operation" is defined as a military operation that involves Israeli military ground forces conducting operations within Iranian territory.
For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving Israeli troops on the ground within the terrestrial territory of Iran will qualify.
Official confirmation by the Israeli military of personnel operating on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Israeli military personnel operated on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as the June 25, 2025, statement by IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir confirmed that Israeli commando forces operated covertly on the ground inside Iran during the 12-day war.
Confirmations referring only to non-military Israeli intelligence activity, including operations by the Mossad or Shin Bet, as well as airstrikes, cyberattacks, standoff weapons, remote sabotage, or actions by proxies or third parties without Israeli military presence, will not alone qualify.
Incidents that would not alone suffice include the November 2025 Mossad statement indicating its agents were present during protests in Iran, or the July 31, 2024, assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, widely attributed to Mossad agents.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the Israeli military; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "ground operation" is defined as a military operation that involves Israeli military ground forces conducting operations within Iranian territory.
For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving Israeli troops on the ground within the terrestrial territory of Iran will qualify.
Official confirmation by the Israeli military of personnel operating on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Israeli military personnel operated on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as the June 25, 2025, statement by IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir confirmed that Israeli commando forces operated covertly on the ground inside Iran during the 12-day war.
Confirmations referring only to non-military Israeli intelligence activity, including operations by the Mossad or Shin Bet, as well as airstrikes, cyberattacks, standoff weapons, remote sabotage, or actions by proxies or third parties without Israeli military presence, will not alone qualify.
Incidents that would not alone suffice include the November 2025 Mossad statement indicating its agents were present during protests in Iran, or the July 31, 2024, assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, widely attributed to Mossad agents.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the Israeli military; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
音量
$1,535,085終了日
2026/05/31マーケット開始日
May 28, 2026, 9:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**As of mid-June 2026, the 2026 Iran war—launched with joint U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on February 28—has centered on air and missile campaigns targeting Iranian military infrastructure, missile sites, and leadership, rather than Israeli ground forces entering Iranian territory.** Israel has repeatedly stated it has no plans for a ground invasion of Iran, instead deploying significant ground units in southern Lebanon against Hezbollah to create buffer zones up to and beyond the Litani River. U.S. officials have discussed limited special operations or raids inside Iran, but Israeli forces are not slated to participate. Recent diplomatic momentum, including a June 14 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding set for signing on June 19 and aimed at halting hostilities within 60 days, has further reduced expectations of major new ground commitments. Ongoing exchanges in Lebanon and around the Strait of Hormuz keep regional tensions elevated, yet the absence of confirmed Israeli ground operations in Iran continues to shape trader assessments of confirmation timelines or triggers.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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