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icon for イスラエルがレバノンから撤退するのは... ？
地政学·イランの停戦

イスラエルがレバノンから撤退するのは... ？

icon for イスラエルがレバノンから撤退するのは... ？
地政学·イランの停戦

イスラエルがレバノンから撤退するのは... ？

$8,375,448 Vol.

2026/08/31
Polymarket

$8,375,448 Vol.

Polymarket

8月31日

$645,720 Vol.

1%

9月30日

$247,670 Vol.

2%

12月31日

$189,586 Vol.

10%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam’s August 2026 call for a clear Israeli withdrawal timetable and expanded pilot zones highlights the central tension in the U.S.-mediated June framework agreement: phased Israeli pullbacks from southern Lebanon tied to verifiable Hezbollah disarmament. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has stated that forces will remain in occupied towns until Hezbollah disarms, creating a linkage that has slowed full implementation despite limited July handovers of buffer-zone sections to the Lebanese army. Hezbollah’s rejection of the deal and insistence on unconditional withdrawal keep gaps wide ahead of early-September talks. These diplomatic and security dynamics—centered on disarmament sequencing, army deployment south of the Litani River, and U.S. facilitation—shape assessments of whether broader withdrawals will accelerate or stall before any specific market deadline.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.

The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
音量
$8,375,448
終了日
2026/06/30
マーケット開始日
Jun 22, 2026, 12:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam’s August 2026 call for a clear Israeli withdrawal timetable and expanded pilot zones highlights the central tension in the U.S.-mediated June framework agreement: phased Israeli pullbacks from southern Lebanon tied to verifiable Hezbollah disarmament. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has stated that forces will remain in occupied towns until Hezbollah disarms, creating a linkage that has slowed full implementation despite limited July handovers of buffer-zone sections to the Lebanese army. Hezbollah’s rejection of the deal and insistence on unconditional withdrawal keep gaps wide ahead of early-September talks. These diplomatic and security dynamics—centered on disarmament sequencing, army deployment south of the Litani River, and U.S. facilitation—shape assessments of whether broader withdrawals will accelerate or stall before any specific market deadline.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.

The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
音量
$8,375,448
終了日
2026/06/30
マーケット開始日
Jun 22, 2026, 12:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.

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よくある質問

「イスラエルがレバノンから撤退するのは... ？」はPolymarket上の7個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「12月31日」で10%、次いで「9月30日」が2%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、10¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に10%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「イスラエルがレバノンから撤退するのは... ？」は$8.4 millionの総取引量を生み出しています（Apr 16, 2026のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「イスラエルがレバノンから撤退するのは... ？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている7個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「イスラエルがレバノンから撤退するのは... ？」の現在のフロントランナーは「12月31日」で10%であり、市場がこの結果に10%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「9月30日」で2%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

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