The Justice Department's April 2026 decision to drop its criminal probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's congressional testimony on the $2.5 billion headquarters renovation remains the dominant factor keeping implied probabilities of federal charges low. A federal judge had already quashed related subpoenas in March, ruling they served as a pretext to pressure the central bank on monetary policy rather than reflect evidence of wrongdoing. With the investigation closed and no indictment issued, traders price in the absence of ongoing legal exposure. Powell's May 2026 transition from chair to governor through 2028 further reduces near-term risk, consistent with historical protections for Fed officials. No major catalysts are scheduled before year-end.