Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s official X account maintains low posting volume following his death in U.S.-Israeli strikes, with activity limited to occasional archival statements or prepared content rather than new leadership messages. Recent examples show gaps of several days between posts, consistent with the account’s established pattern of sporadic output tied to institutional communications rather than daily engagement. No scheduled events, diplomatic summits, or escalations in the Iran-Israel conflict are set to trigger heightened activity during June 12-19. Trader consensus therefore assigns an 87% probability to fewer than five posts, reflecting the structural constraints on the account’s output amid the post-succession environment.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日<5 87%
5-9 7%
20-24 4.0%
15-19 3.8%
新規
新規
2026/06/19
<5
87%
5-9
7%
10-14
1%
15-19
4%
20-24
4%
25-29
3%
30-34
3%
35-39
<1%
40-44
<1%
45-49
<1%
50-54
1%
55-59
1%
60+
1%
<5 87%
5-9 7%
20-24 4.0%
15-19 3.8%
新規
新規
2026/06/19
<5
$294 Vol.
87%
5-9
$61 Vol.
7%
10-14
$70 Vol.
1%
15-19
$80 Vol.
4%
20-24
$88 Vol.
4%
25-29
$70 Vol.
3%
30-34
$73 Vol.
3%
35-39
$50 Vol.
<1%
40-44
$61 Vol.
<1%
45-49
$50 Vol.
<1%
50-54
$94 Vol.
1%
55-59
$40 Vol.
1%
60+
$38 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between June 12, 12:00 PM ET and June 19, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s official X account maintains low posting volume following his death in U.S.-Israeli strikes, with activity limited to occasional archival statements or prepared content rather than new leadership messages. Recent examples show gaps of several days between posts, consistent with the account’s established pattern of sporadic output tied to institutional communications rather than daily engagement. No scheduled events, diplomatic summits, or escalations in the Iran-Israel conflict are set to trigger heightened activity during June 12-19. Trader consensus therefore assigns an 87% probability to fewer than five posts, reflecting the structural constraints on the account’s output amid the post-succession environment.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between June 12, 12:00 PM ET and June 19, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
マーケット開始日： Jun 9, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
音量
$1,069終了日
2026/06/19マーケット開始日
Jun 9, 2026, 12:01 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between June 12, 12:00 PM ET and June 19, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s official X account maintains low posting volume following his death in U.S.-Israeli strikes, with activity limited to occasional archival statements or prepared content rather than new leadership messages. Recent examples show gaps of several days between posts, consistent with the account’s established pattern of sporadic output tied to institutional communications rather than daily engagement. No scheduled events, diplomatic summits, or escalations in the Iran-Israel conflict are set to trigger heightened activity during June 12-19. Trader consensus therefore assigns an 87% probability to fewer than five posts, reflecting the structural constraints on the account’s output amid the post-succession environment.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between June 12, 12:00 PM ET and June 19, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
音量
$1,069終了日
2026/06/19マーケット開始日
Jun 9, 2026, 12:01 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s official X account maintains low posting volume following his death in U.S.-Israeli strikes, with activity limited to occasional archival statements or prepared content rather than new leadership messages. Recent examples show gaps of several days between posts, consistent with the account’s established pattern of sporadic output tied to institutional communications rather than daily engagement. No scheduled events, diplomatic summits, or escalations in the Iran-Israel conflict are set to trigger heightened activity during June 12-19. Trader consensus therefore assigns an 87% probability to fewer than five posts, reflecting the structural constraints on the account’s output amid the post-succession environment.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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