Peru's transitional government and the Justice Ministry's Presidential Pardon Commission have rejected multiple clemency applications from former President Pedro Castillo, including his sixth formal request filed in early 2026, citing procedural inadmissibility. Official statements in February 2026 explicitly ruled out any scheduled grants of pardon, commutation, or humanitarian relief for convicted officials ahead of the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline. Castillo's November 2025 conviction on rebellion charges, resulting in an 11-year sentence, combined with the absence of legislative or executive momentum for amnesty, has reinforced trader expectations that no qualifying grant of clemency will occur before the December 31, 2026, resolution date. Upcoming electoral transitions could introduce new variables, yet current institutional barriers sustain the market's 82.5% implied probability on "No."
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/12/31
新規
新規
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pedro Castillo receives a presidential pardon, commutation, right of grace, humanitarian pardon, or other formal grant of clemency from the President of Peru by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying grant of clemency must be officially issued by the President of Peru and must relieve Castillo, in whole or in part, from criminal liability, criminal proceedings, conviction, sentence, or criminal penalties in connection with any criminal case.
A qualifying grant of clemency will resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later challenged, revoked, annulled, or declared invalid.
Court rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, prosecutorial decisions, prison transfers, releases from custody, or other actions that do not involve a formal presidential grant of clemency will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Government of Peru. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Peru's transitional government and the Justice Ministry's Presidential Pardon Commission have rejected multiple clemency applications from former President Pedro Castillo, including his sixth formal request filed in early 2026, citing procedural inadmissibility. Official statements in February 2026 explicitly ruled out any scheduled grants of pardon, commutation, or humanitarian relief for convicted officials ahead of the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline. Castillo's November 2025 conviction on rebellion charges, resulting in an 11-year sentence, combined with the absence of legislative or executive momentum for amnesty, has reinforced trader expectations that no qualifying grant of clemency will occur before the December 31, 2026, resolution date. Upcoming electoral transitions could introduce new variables, yet current institutional barriers sustain the market's 82.5% implied probability on "No."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pedro Castillo receives a presidential pardon, commutation, right of grace, humanitarian pardon, or other formal grant of clemency from the President of Peru by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying grant of clemency must be officially issued by the President of Peru and must relieve Castillo, in whole or in part, from criminal liability, criminal proceedings, conviction, sentence, or criminal penalties in connection with any criminal case.
A qualifying grant of clemency will resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later challenged, revoked, annulled, or declared invalid.
Court rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, prosecutorial decisions, prison transfers, releases from custody, or other actions that do not involve a formal presidential grant of clemency will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Government of Peru. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying grant of clemency must be officially issued by the President of Peru and must relieve Castillo, in whole or in part, from criminal liability, criminal proceedings, conviction, sentence, or criminal penalties in connection with any criminal case.
A qualifying grant of clemency will resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later challenged, revoked, annulled, or declared invalid.
Court rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, prosecutorial decisions, prison transfers, releases from custody, or other actions that do not involve a formal presidential grant of clemency will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Government of Peru. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jun 9, 2026, 7:32 PM ET
音量
$7,531終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jun 9, 2026, 7:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pedro Castillo receives a presidential pardon, commutation, right of grace, humanitarian pardon, or other formal grant of clemency from the President of Peru by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying grant of clemency must be officially issued by the President of Peru and must relieve Castillo, in whole or in part, from criminal liability, criminal proceedings, conviction, sentence, or criminal penalties in connection with any criminal case.
A qualifying grant of clemency will resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later challenged, revoked, annulled, or declared invalid.
Court rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, prosecutorial decisions, prison transfers, releases from custody, or other actions that do not involve a formal presidential grant of clemency will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Government of Peru. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Peru's transitional government and the Justice Ministry's Presidential Pardon Commission have rejected multiple clemency applications from former President Pedro Castillo, including his sixth formal request filed in early 2026, citing procedural inadmissibility. Official statements in February 2026 explicitly ruled out any scheduled grants of pardon, commutation, or humanitarian relief for convicted officials ahead of the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline. Castillo's November 2025 conviction on rebellion charges, resulting in an 11-year sentence, combined with the absence of legislative or executive momentum for amnesty, has reinforced trader expectations that no qualifying grant of clemency will occur before the December 31, 2026, resolution date. Upcoming electoral transitions could introduce new variables, yet current institutional barriers sustain the market's 82.5% implied probability on "No."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pedro Castillo receives a presidential pardon, commutation, right of grace, humanitarian pardon, or other formal grant of clemency from the President of Peru by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying grant of clemency must be officially issued by the President of Peru and must relieve Castillo, in whole or in part, from criminal liability, criminal proceedings, conviction, sentence, or criminal penalties in connection with any criminal case.
A qualifying grant of clemency will resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later challenged, revoked, annulled, or declared invalid.
Court rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, prosecutorial decisions, prison transfers, releases from custody, or other actions that do not involve a formal presidential grant of clemency will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Government of Peru. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying grant of clemency must be officially issued by the President of Peru and must relieve Castillo, in whole or in part, from criminal liability, criminal proceedings, conviction, sentence, or criminal penalties in connection with any criminal case.
A qualifying grant of clemency will resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later challenged, revoked, annulled, or declared invalid.
Court rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, prosecutorial decisions, prison transfers, releases from custody, or other actions that do not involve a formal presidential grant of clemency will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Government of Peru. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$7,531終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jun 9, 2026, 7:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Peru's transitional government and the Justice Ministry's Presidential Pardon Commission have rejected multiple clemency applications from former President Pedro Castillo, including his sixth formal request filed in early 2026, citing procedural inadmissibility. Official statements in February 2026 explicitly ruled out any scheduled grants of pardon, commutation, or humanitarian relief for convicted officials ahead of the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline. Castillo's November 2025 conviction on rebellion charges, resulting in an 11-year sentence, combined with the absence of legislative or executive momentum for amnesty, has reinforced trader expectations that no qualifying grant of clemency will occur before the December 31, 2026, resolution date. Upcoming electoral transitions could introduce new variables, yet current institutional barriers sustain the market's 82.5% implied probability on "No."
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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