Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to a minimum temperature of 15–16°C in Ankara on August 22 because numerical weather models show modest overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear skies and light winds, with forecast lows clustered near 18°C but carrying uncertainty from boundary-layer humidity and urban heat retention. Differentiating factors among the tightly grouped outcomes (15–17°C) include small variations in dew-point depression, which controls how efficiently the surface loses heat after sunset, and minor differences in predicted wind speeds that could mix warmer air downward. Higher-probability bins above 18°C would require stronger advection or increased cloud cover, while sub-14°C readings remain less favored absent an unexpected cold-air outbreak. Official guidance from regional models and historical August climatology (typical daily minima near 17–19°C) anchors the current market consensus, with any final-hour forecast adjustments likely to shift the tight 15–17°C cluster.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月22日のアンカラの最低気温は？
8月22日のアンカラの最低気温は？
16°C 37%
15°C 36%
17°C 27%
12°C or below 24%
新規
新規
2026/08/22
12°C or below
24%
13°C
21%
14°C
8%
15°C
36%
16°C
37%
17°C
27%
18°C
7%
19°C
14%
20°C
2%
21°C
1%
22°C or higher
1%
16°C 37%
15°C 36%
17°C 27%
12°C or below 24%
新規
新規
2026/08/22
12°C or below
$5 Vol.
24%
13°C
$0 Vol.
21%
14°C
$15 Vol.
8%
15°C
$1 Vol.
36%
16°C
$16 Vol.
37%
17°C
$0 Vol.
27%
18°C
$0 Vol.
7%
19°C
$5 Vol.
14%
20°C
$6 Vol.
2%
21°C
$5 Vol.
1%
22°C or higher
$58 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to a minimum temperature of 15–16°C in Ankara on August 22 because numerical weather models show modest overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear skies and light winds, with forecast lows clustered near 18°C but carrying uncertainty from boundary-layer humidity and urban heat retention. Differentiating factors among the tightly grouped outcomes (15–17°C) include small variations in dew-point depression, which controls how efficiently the surface loses heat after sunset, and minor differences in predicted wind speeds that could mix warmer air downward. Higher-probability bins above 18°C would require stronger advection or increased cloud cover, while sub-14°C readings remain less favored absent an unexpected cold-air outbreak. Official guidance from regional models and historical August climatology (typical daily minima near 17–19°C) anchors the current market consensus, with any final-hour forecast adjustments likely to shift the tight 15–17°C cluster.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Aug 20, 2026, 1:31 PM ET
音量
$59終了日
2026/08/22マーケット開始日
Aug 20, 2026, 1:31 PM ETThis market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to a minimum temperature of 15–16°C in Ankara on August 22 because numerical weather models show modest overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear skies and light winds, with forecast lows clustered near 18°C but carrying uncertainty from boundary-layer humidity and urban heat retention. Differentiating factors among the tightly grouped outcomes (15–17°C) include small variations in dew-point depression, which controls how efficiently the surface loses heat after sunset, and minor differences in predicted wind speeds that could mix warmer air downward. Higher-probability bins above 18°C would require stronger advection or increased cloud cover, while sub-14°C readings remain less favored absent an unexpected cold-air outbreak. Official guidance from regional models and historical August climatology (typical daily minima near 17–19°C) anchors the current market consensus, with any final-hour forecast adjustments likely to shift the tight 15–17°C cluster.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$59終了日
2026/08/22マーケット開始日
Aug 20, 2026, 1:31 PM ETTraders assign the highest implied probabilities to a minimum temperature of 15–16°C in Ankara on August 22 because numerical weather models show modest overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear skies and light winds, with forecast lows clustered near 18°C but carrying uncertainty from boundary-layer humidity and urban heat retention. Differentiating factors among the tightly grouped outcomes (15–17°C) include small variations in dew-point depression, which controls how efficiently the surface loses heat after sunset, and minor differences in predicted wind speeds that could mix warmer air downward. Higher-probability bins above 18°C would require stronger advection or increased cloud cover, while sub-14°C readings remain less favored absent an unexpected cold-air outbreak. Official guidance from regional models and historical August climatology (typical daily minima near 17–19°C) anchors the current market consensus, with any final-hour forecast adjustments likely to shift the tight 15–17°C cluster.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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