Traders assign nearly equal implied probabilities to 78-79°F (36.5%) and 80-81°F (36.0%) as the lowest NYC temperature on August 7, reflecting tight clustering around 76-81°F amid genuine forecast uncertainty. Primary drivers include persistent warm, humid conditions under high pressure with light winds and elevated dew points that limit nocturnal radiational cooling, alongside recent model consensus from NOAA and NWS guidance showing overnight lows near 77°F. Minor spreads among 76-77°F and 82-83°F outcomes stem from subtle differences in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and steering patterns that could alter minimum readings by 2-4°F. Historical August baselines (average lows ~68°F) underscore the current anomalous warmth, with final resolution hinging on Central Park observations and the next NWS forecast updates.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月7日のニューヨーク市の最低気温は？
8月7日のニューヨーク市の最低気温は？
78～79°F 36%
76〜77°F 35%
80〜81°F 32%
74～75°F 12%
新規
新規
2026/08/07
65°F以下
2%
66〜67°F
1%
68〜69°F
7%
70〜71°F
10%
72〜73°F
8%
74～75°F
12%
76〜77°F
35%
78～79°F
36%
80〜81°F
32%
82〜83°F
8%
華氏84度以上
8%
78～79°F 36%
76〜77°F 35%
80〜81°F 32%
74～75°F 12%
新規
新規
2026/08/07
65°F以下
$10 Vol.
2%
66〜67°F
$24 Vol.
1%
68〜69°F
$24 Vol.
7%
70〜71°F
$24 Vol.
10%
72〜73°F
$0 Vol.
8%
74～75°F
$0 Vol.
12%
76〜77°F
$0 Vol.
35%
78～79°F
$0 Vol.
36%
80〜81°F
$0 Vol.
32%
82〜83°F
$1 Vol.
8%
華氏84度以上
$19 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign nearly equal implied probabilities to 78-79°F (36.5%) and 80-81°F (36.0%) as the lowest NYC temperature on August 7, reflecting tight clustering around 76-81°F amid genuine forecast uncertainty. Primary drivers include persistent warm, humid conditions under high pressure with light winds and elevated dew points that limit nocturnal radiational cooling, alongside recent model consensus from NOAA and NWS guidance showing overnight lows near 77°F. Minor spreads among 76-77°F and 82-83°F outcomes stem from subtle differences in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and steering patterns that could alter minimum readings by 2-4°F. Historical August baselines (average lows ~68°F) underscore the current anomalous warmth, with final resolution hinging on Central Park observations and the next NWS forecast updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Aug 5, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
音量
$101終了日
2026/08/07マーケット開始日
Aug 5, 2026, 9:30 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign nearly equal implied probabilities to 78-79°F (36.5%) and 80-81°F (36.0%) as the lowest NYC temperature on August 7, reflecting tight clustering around 76-81°F amid genuine forecast uncertainty. Primary drivers include persistent warm, humid conditions under high pressure with light winds and elevated dew points that limit nocturnal radiational cooling, alongside recent model consensus from NOAA and NWS guidance showing overnight lows near 77°F. Minor spreads among 76-77°F and 82-83°F outcomes stem from subtle differences in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and steering patterns that could alter minimum readings by 2-4°F. Historical August baselines (average lows ~68°F) underscore the current anomalous warmth, with final resolution hinging on Central Park observations and the next NWS forecast updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$101終了日
2026/08/07マーケット開始日
Aug 5, 2026, 9:30 PM ETTraders assign nearly equal implied probabilities to 78-79°F (36.5%) and 80-81°F (36.0%) as the lowest NYC temperature on August 7, reflecting tight clustering around 76-81°F amid genuine forecast uncertainty. Primary drivers include persistent warm, humid conditions under high pressure with light winds and elevated dew points that limit nocturnal radiational cooling, alongside recent model consensus from NOAA and NWS guidance showing overnight lows near 77°F. Minor spreads among 76-77°F and 82-83°F outcomes stem from subtle differences in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and steering patterns that could alter minimum readings by 2-4°F. Historical August baselines (average lows ~68°F) underscore the current anomalous warmth, with final resolution hinging on Central Park observations and the next NWS forecast updates.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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