Global forecast models from the ECMWF and GFS show tight ensemble convergence on an overnight low of 19°C in Shanghai for May 17, driving the market’s overwhelming 99.4% implied probability for that outcome. Mid-May climatology under neutral spring conditions typically produces Shanghai minima between 17°C and 21°C, influenced by East Asian monsoon maritime air masses and variable cloud cover that moderates radiative cooling. A persistent high-pressure ridge could allow slightly higher readings, while a weak trough or stronger sea-breeze advection might lower the minimum by one degree. Traders are watching the next China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF model runs for any shifts in boundary-layer moisture or wind patterns that could alter the final observed low.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日5月17日の上海の最低気温は?
19℃ 99.3%
20°C <1%
18℃ <1%
16°C <1%
$11,079 Vol.
$11,079 Vol.
14℃以下
<1%
15℃
<1%
16°C
<1%
17℃
<1%
18℃
1%
19℃
99%
20°C
1%
21℃
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24℃以上
<1%
19℃ 99.3%
20°C <1%
18℃ <1%
16°C <1%
$11,079 Vol.
$11,079 Vol.
14℃以下
<1%
15℃
<1%
16°C
<1%
17℃
<1%
18℃
1%
19℃
99%
20°C
1%
21℃
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24℃以上
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Global forecast models from the ECMWF and GFS show tight ensemble convergence on an overnight low of 19°C in Shanghai for May 17, driving the market’s overwhelming 99.4% implied probability for that outcome. Mid-May climatology under neutral spring conditions typically produces Shanghai minima between 17°C and 21°C, influenced by East Asian monsoon maritime air masses and variable cloud cover that moderates radiative cooling. A persistent high-pressure ridge could allow slightly higher readings, while a weak trough or stronger sea-breeze advection might lower the minimum by one degree. Traders are watching the next China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF model runs for any shifts in boundary-layer moisture or wind patterns that could alter the final observed low.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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外部リンクに注意してください。
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