**SPD maintains a strong position as the likely second-place finisher in the September 20, 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election.** Recent opinion polls from Infratest dimap and INSA through July 2026 show AfD consistently leading at 35–36 percent, with SPD holding steady in second at 28–29 percent, followed by Linke around 11–12 percent and CDU near 9–10 percent. This ordering has remained stable across multiple surveys since March, reflecting AfD strength in eastern Germany and SPD incumbency advantages under Minister-President Manuela Schwesig. Traders assign SPD an 86.5 percent implied probability of finishing second, consistent with the polling gap to third place and limited evidence of late momentum shifts for other parties. Minor parties including Grüne, FDP, BSW, and FW remain below or near the 5 percent threshold in surveys, reducing their prospects for second place. AfD’s 12.8 percent probability aligns with its frontrunner status, while CDU, Linke, and others show negligible chances of overtaking SPD in current trends. No major campaign events or polling changes in the past month have altered this consensus.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日SPD 87%
AfD 12.8%
CDU <1%
FDP <1%
新規
新規
2026/09/20
SPD
87%
AfD
13%
CDU
<1%
FDP
<1%
FW
<1%
BSW
<1%
グリューネ
<1%
リンク
<1%
SPD 87%
AfD 12.8%
CDU <1%
FDP <1%
新規
新規
2026/09/20
SPD
$1,102 Vol.
87%
AfD
$1,371 Vol.
13%
CDU
$381 Vol.
<1%
FDP
$610 Vol.
<1%
FW
$458 Vol.
<1%
BSW
$349 Vol.
<1%
グリューネ
$425 Vol.
<1%
リンク
$424 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).**SPD maintains a strong position as the likely second-place finisher in the September 20, 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election.** Recent opinion polls from Infratest dimap and INSA through July 2026 show AfD consistently leading at 35–36 percent, with SPD holding steady in second at 28–29 percent, followed by Linke around 11–12 percent and CDU near 9–10 percent. This ordering has remained stable across multiple surveys since March, reflecting AfD strength in eastern Germany and SPD incumbency advantages under Minister-President Manuela Schwesig.
Traders assign SPD an 86.5 percent implied probability of finishing second, consistent with the polling gap to third place and limited evidence of late momentum shifts for other parties. Minor parties including Grüne, FDP, BSW, and FW remain below or near the 5 percent threshold in surveys, reducing their prospects for second place. AfD’s 12.8 percent probability aligns with its frontrunner status, while CDU, Linke, and others show negligible chances of overtaking SPD in current trends. No major campaign events or polling changes in the past month have altered this consensus.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
マーケット開始日： Aug 6, 2026, 8:55 PM ET
音量
$5,120終了日
2026/09/20マーケット開始日
Aug 6, 2026, 8:55 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).**SPD maintains a strong position as the likely second-place finisher in the September 20, 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election.** Recent opinion polls from Infratest dimap and INSA through July 2026 show AfD consistently leading at 35–36 percent, with SPD holding steady in second at 28–29 percent, followed by Linke around 11–12 percent and CDU near 9–10 percent. This ordering has remained stable across multiple surveys since March, reflecting AfD strength in eastern Germany and SPD incumbency advantages under Minister-President Manuela Schwesig.
Traders assign SPD an 86.5 percent implied probability of finishing second, consistent with the polling gap to third place and limited evidence of late momentum shifts for other parties. Minor parties including Grüne, FDP, BSW, and FW remain below or near the 5 percent threshold in surveys, reducing their prospects for second place. AfD’s 12.8 percent probability aligns with its frontrunner status, while CDU, Linke, and others show negligible chances of overtaking SPD in current trends. No major campaign events or polling changes in the past month have altered this consensus.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
音量
$5,120終了日
2026/09/20マーケット開始日
Aug 6, 2026, 8:55 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**SPD maintains a strong position as the likely second-place finisher in the September 20, 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election.** Recent opinion polls from Infratest dimap and INSA through July 2026 show AfD consistently leading at 35–36 percent, with SPD holding steady in second at 28–29 percent, followed by Linke around 11–12 percent and CDU near 9–10 percent. This ordering has remained stable across multiple surveys since March, reflecting AfD strength in eastern Germany and SPD incumbency advantages under Minister-President Manuela Schwesig. Traders assign SPD an 86.5 percent implied probability of finishing second, consistent with the polling gap to third place and limited evidence of late momentum shifts for other parties. Minor parties including Grüne, FDP, BSW, and FW remain below or near the 5 percent threshold in surveys, reducing their prospects for second place. AfD’s 12.8 percent probability aligns with its frontrunner status, while CDU, Linke, and others show negligible chances of overtaking SPD in current trends. No major campaign events or polling changes in the past month have altered this consensus.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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