**Democratic incumbent Hillary Scholten holds a strong position in Michigan’s 3rd Congressional District ahead of the 2026 general election.** The seat, which encompasses parts of Kent, Ottawa, and Muskegon counties including Grand Rapids, carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+4 and has trended steadily Democratic since 2016. Scholten flipped the district in 2022 and won reelection in 2024 by roughly 10 points after Kamala Harris carried it by eight, establishing a durable advantage that aligns with the market’s 86% implied probability for Democrats. Republican primary candidates Ryan Cushman and Terri DeBoer face an uphill climb in a district where forecasters from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic. No major recent developments—such as polling shifts, candidate withdrawals, or external events—have materially altered this outlook since the 2024 cycle. The 14% Republican probability reflects residual uncertainty typical of midterm environments and the possibility of a stronger nominee emerging, though structural factors continue to favor the Democratic hold. Primaries are scheduled for August 4, 2026, with the general election on November 3.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日MI-03 House Election Winner
MI-03 House Election Winner
新規
新規
2026/11/04
Democratic Party
90%
Republican Party
9%
新規
新規
2026/11/04
Democratic Party
$733 Vol.
90%
Republican Party
$163 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Democratic incumbent Hillary Scholten holds a strong position in Michigan’s 3rd Congressional District ahead of the 2026 general election.** The seat, which encompasses parts of Kent, Ottawa, and Muskegon counties including Grand Rapids, carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+4 and has trended steadily Democratic since 2016. Scholten flipped the district in 2022 and won reelection in 2024 by roughly 10 points after Kamala Harris carried it by eight, establishing a durable advantage that aligns with the market’s 86% implied probability for Democrats.
Republican primary candidates Ryan Cushman and Terri DeBoer face an uphill climb in a district where forecasters from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic. No major recent developments—such as polling shifts, candidate withdrawals, or external events—have materially altered this outlook since the 2024 cycle. The 14% Republican probability reflects residual uncertainty typical of midterm environments and the possibility of a stronger nominee emerging, though structural factors continue to favor the Democratic hold. Primaries are scheduled for August 4, 2026, with the general election on November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Dec 16, 2025, 11:59 AM ET
音量
$896終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 11:59 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Democratic incumbent Hillary Scholten holds a strong position in Michigan’s 3rd Congressional District ahead of the 2026 general election.** The seat, which encompasses parts of Kent, Ottawa, and Muskegon counties including Grand Rapids, carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+4 and has trended steadily Democratic since 2016. Scholten flipped the district in 2022 and won reelection in 2024 by roughly 10 points after Kamala Harris carried it by eight, establishing a durable advantage that aligns with the market’s 86% implied probability for Democrats.
Republican primary candidates Ryan Cushman and Terri DeBoer face an uphill climb in a district where forecasters from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic. No major recent developments—such as polling shifts, candidate withdrawals, or external events—have materially altered this outlook since the 2024 cycle. The 14% Republican probability reflects residual uncertainty typical of midterm environments and the possibility of a stronger nominee emerging, though structural factors continue to favor the Democratic hold. Primaries are scheduled for August 4, 2026, with the general election on November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$896終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 11:59 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Democratic incumbent Hillary Scholten holds a strong position in Michigan’s 3rd Congressional District ahead of the 2026 general election.** The seat, which encompasses parts of Kent, Ottawa, and Muskegon counties including Grand Rapids, carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+4 and has trended steadily Democratic since 2016. Scholten flipped the district in 2022 and won reelection in 2024 by roughly 10 points after Kamala Harris carried it by eight, establishing a durable advantage that aligns with the market’s 86% implied probability for Democrats. Republican primary candidates Ryan Cushman and Terri DeBoer face an uphill climb in a district where forecasters from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic. No major recent developments—such as polling shifts, candidate withdrawals, or external events—have materially altered this outlook since the 2024 cycle. The 14% Republican probability reflects residual uncertainty typical of midterm environments and the possibility of a stronger nominee emerging, though structural factors continue to favor the Democratic hold. Primaries are scheduled for August 4, 2026, with the general election on November 3.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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