Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 89.5% implied probability to win Tennessee's 4th Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's strong R+21 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent GOP dominance. Incumbent Rep. Scott DesJarlais, who secured 70% in 2024 against Democrat Victoria Broderick, holds a commanding fundraising lead with over $429,000 cash on hand as of late March, dwarfing Broderick's $3,943. Mid-decade redistricting finalized a new map in early May, reopening filings through May 15 without altering the safe Republican rating from Cook Political Report and others; Broderick remains the lone Democratic primary contender after others withdrew. The August 6 primaries and November 3 general loom, but historical margins exceeding 40 points underscore significant barriers to a Democratic upset barring unforeseen scandals or turnout anomalies.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
90%
民主党
10%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
$2,257 Vol.
90%
民主党
$4,410 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 89.5% implied probability to win Tennessee's 4th Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's strong R+21 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent GOP dominance. Incumbent Rep. Scott DesJarlais, who secured 70% in 2024 against Democrat Victoria Broderick, holds a commanding fundraising lead with over $429,000 cash on hand as of late March, dwarfing Broderick's $3,943. Mid-decade redistricting finalized a new map in early May, reopening filings through May 15 without altering the safe Republican rating from Cook Political Report and others; Broderick remains the lone Democratic primary contender after others withdrew. The August 6 primaries and November 3 general loom, but historical margins exceeding 40 points underscore significant barriers to a Democratic upset barring unforeseen scandals or turnout anomalies.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
音量
$6,668終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 89.5% implied probability to win Tennessee's 4th Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's strong R+21 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent GOP dominance. Incumbent Rep. Scott DesJarlais, who secured 70% in 2024 against Democrat Victoria Broderick, holds a commanding fundraising lead with over $429,000 cash on hand as of late March, dwarfing Broderick's $3,943. Mid-decade redistricting finalized a new map in early May, reopening filings through May 15 without altering the safe Republican rating from Cook Political Report and others; Broderick remains the lone Democratic primary contender after others withdrew. The August 6 primaries and November 3 general loom, but historical margins exceeding 40 points underscore significant barriers to a Democratic upset barring unforeseen scandals or turnout anomalies.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$6,668終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 89.5% implied probability to win Tennessee's 4th Congressional District House seat, reflecting the district's strong R+21 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent GOP dominance. Incumbent Rep. Scott DesJarlais, who secured 70% in 2024 against Democrat Victoria Broderick, holds a commanding fundraising lead with over $429,000 cash on hand as of late March, dwarfing Broderick's $3,943. Mid-decade redistricting finalized a new map in early May, reopening filings through May 15 without altering the safe Republican rating from Cook Political Report and others; Broderick remains the lone Democratic primary contender after others withdrew. The August 6 primaries and November 3 general loom, but historical margins exceeding 40 points underscore significant barriers to a Democratic upset barring unforeseen scandals or turnout anomalies.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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