Republican Michael Baumgartner, the incumbent first elected in 2024, advanced from Washington’s August 4, 2026 top-two primary with 48 percent of the vote, outpacing Democratic and independent challengers including Carmela Conroy. The district’s R+5 partisan voting index and consistent eastern Washington voting patterns continue to favor Republican candidates in general elections. Recent polling shows Baumgartner ahead of leading Democratic opponents by margins of 6 to 8 points. With the November 3 general election three months away, traders view the seat’s structural Republican lean and the incumbent’s primary performance as the primary drivers behind the current 64 percent implied probability for a Republican victory.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$32,512 Vol.
$32,512 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
64%
民主党
32%
$32,512 Vol.
$32,512 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
$12,405 Vol.
64%
民主党
$20,107 Vol.
32%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican Michael Baumgartner, the incumbent first elected in 2024, advanced from Washington’s August 4, 2026 top-two primary with 48 percent of the vote, outpacing Democratic and independent challengers including Carmela Conroy. The district’s R+5 partisan voting index and consistent eastern Washington voting patterns continue to favor Republican candidates in general elections. Recent polling shows Baumgartner ahead of leading Democratic opponents by margins of 6 to 8 points. With the November 3 general election three months away, traders view the seat’s structural Republican lean and the incumbent’s primary performance as the primary drivers behind the current 64 percent implied probability for a Republican victory.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
音量
$32,512終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican Michael Baumgartner, the incumbent first elected in 2024, advanced from Washington’s August 4, 2026 top-two primary with 48 percent of the vote, outpacing Democratic and independent challengers including Carmela Conroy. The district’s R+5 partisan voting index and consistent eastern Washington voting patterns continue to favor Republican candidates in general elections. Recent polling shows Baumgartner ahead of leading Democratic opponents by margins of 6 to 8 points. With the November 3 general election three months away, traders view the seat’s structural Republican lean and the incumbent’s primary performance as the primary drivers behind the current 64 percent implied probability for a Republican victory.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$32,512終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican Michael Baumgartner, the incumbent first elected in 2024, advanced from Washington’s August 4, 2026 top-two primary with 48 percent of the vote, outpacing Democratic and independent challengers including Carmela Conroy. The district’s R+5 partisan voting index and consistent eastern Washington voting patterns continue to favor Republican candidates in general elections. Recent polling shows Baumgartner ahead of leading Democratic opponents by margins of 6 to 8 points. With the November 3 general election three months away, traders view the seat’s structural Republican lean and the incumbent’s primary performance as the primary drivers behind the current 64 percent implied probability for a Republican victory.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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