Incumbent Republican Nicholas LaLota’s re-election bid in New York’s 1st congressional district drives the current market positioning, backed by the district’s R+4 partisan voter index and solid Republican ratings from nonpartisan forecasters. Primaries scheduled for June 23 leave the Democratic field fragmented among several lesser-known challengers, reducing the prospect of a competitive general election matchup on November 3. Recent filings and the absence of high-profile Democratic recruitment efforts reinforce expectations that resources will flow elsewhere, leaving LaLota with a clear path absent major late-cycle shifts in national conditions or turnout patterns. Traders price these structural advantages into the Republican outcome while leaving room for primary volatility.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$20,232 Vol.
$20,232 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
49%
民主党
23%
$20,232 Vol.
$20,232 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
$6,326 Vol.
49%
民主党
$13,906 Vol.
23%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Nicholas LaLota’s re-election bid in New York’s 1st congressional district drives the current market positioning, backed by the district’s R+4 partisan voter index and solid Republican ratings from nonpartisan forecasters. Primaries scheduled for June 23 leave the Democratic field fragmented among several lesser-known challengers, reducing the prospect of a competitive general election matchup on November 3. Recent filings and the absence of high-profile Democratic recruitment efforts reinforce expectations that resources will flow elsewhere, leaving LaLota with a clear path absent major late-cycle shifts in national conditions or turnout patterns. Traders price these structural advantages into the Republican outcome while leaving room for primary volatility.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ET
音量
$20,232終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Nicholas LaLota’s re-election bid in New York’s 1st congressional district drives the current market positioning, backed by the district’s R+4 partisan voter index and solid Republican ratings from nonpartisan forecasters. Primaries scheduled for June 23 leave the Democratic field fragmented among several lesser-known challengers, reducing the prospect of a competitive general election matchup on November 3. Recent filings and the absence of high-profile Democratic recruitment efforts reinforce expectations that resources will flow elsewhere, leaving LaLota with a clear path absent major late-cycle shifts in national conditions or turnout patterns. Traders price these structural advantages into the Republican outcome while leaving room for primary volatility.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$20,232終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Nicholas LaLota’s re-election bid in New York’s 1st congressional district drives the current market positioning, backed by the district’s R+4 partisan voter index and solid Republican ratings from nonpartisan forecasters. Primaries scheduled for June 23 leave the Democratic field fragmented among several lesser-known challengers, reducing the prospect of a competitive general election matchup on November 3. Recent filings and the absence of high-profile Democratic recruitment efforts reinforce expectations that resources will flow elsewhere, leaving LaLota with a clear path absent major late-cycle shifts in national conditions or turnout patterns. Traders price these structural advantages into the Republican outcome while leaving room for primary volatility.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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