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icon for この夏、北極海の氷の範囲を最小限に抑えますか？

この夏、北極海の氷の範囲を最小限に抑えますか？

icon for この夏、北極海の氷の範囲を最小限に抑えますか？

この夏、北極海の氷の範囲を最小限に抑えますか？

400万平方キロメートル未満 57%

4.0～4.2百万平方キロメートル 13.6%

4.2～4.4百万平方キロメートル 12.5%

4.4～4.6百万平方キロメートル 8.1%

Polymarket

$48,608 Vol.

400万平方キロメートル未満 57%

4.0～4.2百万平方キロメートル 13.6%

4.2～4.4百万平方キロメートル 12.5%

4.4～4.6百万平方キロメートル 8.1%

Polymarket

$48,608 Vol.

400万平方キロメートル未満

$25,113 Vol.

57%

4.0～4.2百万平方キロメートル

$3,459 Vol.

14%

4.2～4.4百万平方キロメートル

$1,313 Vol.

13%

4.4～4.6百万平方キロメートル

$1,381 Vol.

8%

460万〜480万平方キロメートル

$2,948 Vol.

6%

480万～500万平方キロメートル

$1,199 Vol.

2%

500万平方キロメートル超

$13,195 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus assigns the strongest implied probability to a minimum Arctic sea ice extent below 4 million square kilometers this summer, reflecting the record-low winter maximum of 14.29 million square kilometers reached on March 15 according to NSIDC data. This unusually thin starting ice cover, statistically tied with 2025 for the lowest in the satellite record, has already produced near-record low extents and volumes through April and mid-May 2026. Persistent warm Atlantic inflows into the Barents Sea and regional atmospheric patterns continue to accelerate early melt, while the long-term downward trend in Arctic ice provides climatological context for further losses during the peak melt season. Updated NSIDC observations and forecast model runs through early summer will be key variables for traders monitoring potential shifts.

This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
音量
$48,608
終了日
2026/10/01
マーケット開始日
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus assigns the strongest implied probability to a minimum Arctic sea ice extent below 4 million square kilometers this summer, reflecting the record-low winter maximum of 14.29 million square kilometers reached on March 15 according to NSIDC data. This unusually thin starting ice cover, statistically tied with 2025 for the lowest in the satellite record, has already produced near-record low extents and volumes through April and mid-May 2026. Persistent warm Atlantic inflows into the Barents Sea and regional atmospheric patterns continue to accelerate early melt, while the long-term downward trend in Arctic ice provides climatological context for further losses during the peak melt season. Updated NSIDC observations and forecast model runs through early summer will be key variables for traders monitoring potential shifts.

This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
音量
$48,608
終了日
2026/10/01
マーケット開始日
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「この夏、北極海の氷の範囲を最小限に抑えますか？」はPolymarket上の7個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「400万平方キロメートル未満」で57%、次いで「4.0～4.2百万平方キロメートル」が14%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、57¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に57%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「この夏、北極海の氷の範囲を最小限に抑えますか？」は$48.6Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Nov 20, 2025のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「この夏、北極海の氷の範囲を最小限に抑えますか？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている7個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「この夏、北極海の氷の範囲を最小限に抑えますか？」の現在のフロントランナーは「400万平方キロメートル未満」で57%であり、市場がこの結果に57%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「4.0～4.2百万平方キロメートル」で14%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「この夏、北極海の氷の範囲を最小限に抑えますか？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。