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政治·スターマー

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

icon for Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)
政治·スターマー

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

Starmer - UK PM 49%

Petro - Colombia President 19%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 8.3%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President 2.1%

Polymarket

$367,449 Vol.

Starmer - UK PM 49%

Petro - Colombia President 19%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 8.3%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President 2.1%

Polymarket

$367,449 Vol.

Starmer - UK PM

$21,885 Vol.

49%

Petro - Colombia President

$20,449 Vol.

19%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President

$12,135 Vol.

8%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President

$21,799 Vol.

2%

Sheinbaum - Mexico President

$13,621 Vol.

1%

Takaichi - Japan PM

$16,154 Vol.

1%

Netanyahu - Israel PM

$17,125 Vol.

1%

Lecornu - France PM

$16,116 Vol.

1%

Erdoğan - Türkiye President

$10,679 Vol.

1%

None before 2027

$19,128 Vol.

<1%

Trump - USA President

$10,495 Vol.

<1%

Putin - Russia President

$19,743 Vol.

<1%

Abbas - President of Palestine

$13,158 Vol.

<1%

Macron - France President

$12,204 Vol.

<1%

Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea

$15,266 Vol.

<1%

Xi - General Secretary of the CCP

$11,850 Vol.

<1%

Lula da Silva - Brazil President

$15,675 Vol.

<1%

Albanese - Australia PM

$14,418 Vol.

<1%

Newsom - California Governor

$18,264 Vol.

<1%

Milei - Argentina President

$12,504 Vol.

<1%

Merz - German Chancellor

$12,235 Vol.

<1%

Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President

$13,930 Vol.

<1%

al-Sharaa - Syria President

$11,335 Vol.

<1%

Sánchez - Spanish PM

$17,281 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Keir Starmer faces acute pressure from Labour Party rebels following the party's heavy defeats in recent local elections, multiple cabinet resignations including Health Secretary Wes Streeting, and public calls from nearly 100 MPs for his departure or a fixed exit timeline, positioning him as the market's leading outcome at 48.5% for leaving office before 2027. Colombia's Gustavo Petro trails at 20% due to his constitutional ineligibility for re-election and the scheduled May 31 presidential vote that will end his term by August, though his recent approval rebound has slightly tempered immediate removal odds. Lower-probability figures such as Cuba's Miguel Díaz-Canel and Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelenskyy reflect entrenched institutional positions with fewer near-term catalysts, while trader consensus on the remaining outcomes stays under 1% absent fresh diplomatic, electoral, or legislative developments capable of accelerating departures.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$367,449
終了日
2026/12/31
マーケット開始日
Apr 27, 2026, 6:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Keir Starmer faces acute pressure from Labour Party rebels following the party's heavy defeats in recent local elections, multiple cabinet resignations including Health Secretary Wes Streeting, and public calls from nearly 100 MPs for his departure or a fixed exit timeline, positioning him as the market's leading outcome at 48.5% for leaving office before 2027. Colombia's Gustavo Petro trails at 20% due to his constitutional ineligibility for re-election and the scheduled May 31 presidential vote that will end his term by August, though his recent approval rebound has slightly tempered immediate removal odds. Lower-probability figures such as Cuba's Miguel Díaz-Canel and Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelenskyy reflect entrenched institutional positions with fewer near-term catalysts, while trader consensus on the remaining outcomes stays under 1% absent fresh diplomatic, electoral, or legislative developments capable of accelerating departures.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$367,449
終了日
2026/12/31
マーケット開始日
Apr 27, 2026, 6:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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よくある質問

「Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)」はPolymarket上の24個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「Starmer - UK PM」で49%、次いで「Petro - Colombia President」が19%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、49¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に49%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)」は$367.4Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Apr 27, 2026のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)」で取引するには、このページに記載されている24個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)」の現在のフロントランナーは「Starmer - UK PM」で49%であり、市場がこの結果に49%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「Petro - Colombia President」で19%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。