The NY-12 Democratic primary on June 23 features a fluid contest among state legislators Micah Lasher and Alex Bores, along with Jack Schlossberg and others, to succeed retiring incumbent Jerrold Nadler. Recent polling, including an AARP survey of voters 50 and older, shows Lasher with a modest lead but a large undecided share exceeding 20 percent, while earlier surveys indicated narrow Bores edges. A June debate and ongoing fundraising have kept the race competitive, with no candidate securing dominant endorsements or momentum. Traders price a close outcome as most likely, reflecting the primary's late timing, shifting voter blocs in Manhattan districts, and limited historical precedent for decisive margins in similar open-seat Democratic contests.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日ラッシャー <5％ 28%
ラッシャー 5〜10％ 27%
ボアーズ <5％ 24%
ラッシャー 10～15％ 13%
新規
新規
2026/06/24
ラッシャー 15％以上
5%
ラッシャー 10～15％
13%
ラッシャー 5〜10％
27%
ラッシャー <5％
28%
ボアーズ 5％以上
5%
ボアーズ <5％
24%
シュロスバーグ勝利
7%
ラッシャー <5％ 28%
ラッシャー 5〜10％ 27%
ボアーズ <5％ 24%
ラッシャー 10～15％ 13%
新規
新規
2026/06/24
ラッシャー 15％以上
$74 Vol.
5%
ラッシャー 10～15％
$65 Vol.
13%
ラッシャー 5〜10％
$140 Vol.
27%
ラッシャー <5％
$102 Vol.
28%
ボアーズ 5％以上
$81 Vol.
5%
ボアーズ <5％
$61 Vol.
24%
シュロスバーグ勝利
$104 Vol.
7%
Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-12 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The NY-12 Democratic primary on June 23 features a fluid contest among state legislators Micah Lasher and Alex Bores, along with Jack Schlossberg and others, to succeed retiring incumbent Jerrold Nadler. Recent polling, including an AARP survey of voters 50 and older, shows Lasher with a modest lead but a large undecided share exceeding 20 percent, while earlier surveys indicated narrow Bores edges. A June debate and ongoing fundraising have kept the race competitive, with no candidate securing dominant endorsements or momentum. Traders price a close outcome as most likely, reflecting the primary's late timing, shifting voter blocs in Manhattan districts, and limited historical precedent for decisive margins in similar open-seat Democratic contests.
Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-12 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-12 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
マーケット開始日： Jun 15, 2026, 2:29 PM ET
音量
$625終了日
2026/06/24マーケット開始日
Jun 15, 2026, 2:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-12 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The NY-12 Democratic primary on June 23 features a fluid contest among state legislators Micah Lasher and Alex Bores, along with Jack Schlossberg and others, to succeed retiring incumbent Jerrold Nadler. Recent polling, including an AARP survey of voters 50 and older, shows Lasher with a modest lead but a large undecided share exceeding 20 percent, while earlier surveys indicated narrow Bores edges. A June debate and ongoing fundraising have kept the race competitive, with no candidate securing dominant endorsements or momentum. Traders price a close outcome as most likely, reflecting the primary's late timing, shifting voter blocs in Manhattan districts, and limited historical precedent for decisive margins in similar open-seat Democratic contests.
Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-12 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-12 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
音量
$625終了日
2026/06/24マーケット開始日
Jun 15, 2026, 2:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The NY-12 Democratic primary on June 23 features a fluid contest among state legislators Micah Lasher and Alex Bores, along with Jack Schlossberg and others, to succeed retiring incumbent Jerrold Nadler. Recent polling, including an AARP survey of voters 50 and older, shows Lasher with a modest lead but a large undecided share exceeding 20 percent, while earlier surveys indicated narrow Bores edges. A June debate and ongoing fundraising have kept the race competitive, with no candidate securing dominant endorsements or momentum. Traders price a close outcome as most likely, reflecting the primary's late timing, shifting voter blocs in Manhattan districts, and limited historical precedent for decisive margins in similar open-seat Democratic contests.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問