Ruling party leaders have discussed drafting a new Turkish constitution during the 2026-2027 period, with Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş stating in June that such a charter could emerge as a modern social contract. However, the AKP-MHP alliance holds roughly 321-326 seats in the 600-member parliament, falling short of the 360-vote threshold needed to trigger a referendum under Article 175. Recent senior statements, including those from presidential adviser Mehmet Ucum and Justice Minister Akın Gürlek in September 2026, have instead emphasized using Article 116 to call early elections in April 2028, enabling President Erdoğan’s third-term candidacy without immediate constitutional overhaul. No formal announcement or parliamentary vote scheduling a 2026 referendum has occurred, sustaining trader consensus against the outcome.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日11% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
11% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ruling party leaders have discussed drafting a new Turkish constitution during the 2026-2027 period, with Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş stating in June that such a charter could emerge as a modern social contract. However, the AKP-MHP alliance holds roughly 321-326 seats in the 600-member parliament, falling short of the 360-vote threshold needed to trigger a referendum under Article 175. Recent senior statements, including those from presidential adviser Mehmet Ucum and Justice Minister Akın Gürlek in September 2026, have instead emphasized using Article 116 to call early elections in April 2028, enabling President Erdoğan’s third-term candidacy without immediate constitutional overhaul. No formal announcement or parliamentary vote scheduling a 2026 referendum has occurred, sustaining trader consensus against the outcome.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ET
音量
$7,039終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ruling party leaders have discussed drafting a new Turkish constitution during the 2026-2027 period, with Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş stating in June that such a charter could emerge as a modern social contract. However, the AKP-MHP alliance holds roughly 321-326 seats in the 600-member parliament, falling short of the 360-vote threshold needed to trigger a referendum under Article 175. Recent senior statements, including those from presidential adviser Mehmet Ucum and Justice Minister Akın Gürlek in September 2026, have instead emphasized using Article 116 to call early elections in April 2028, enabling President Erdoğan’s third-term candidacy without immediate constitutional overhaul. No formal announcement or parliamentary vote scheduling a 2026 referendum has occurred, sustaining trader consensus against the outcome.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$7,039終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Ruling party leaders have discussed drafting a new Turkish constitution during the 2026-2027 period, with Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş stating in June that such a charter could emerge as a modern social contract. However, the AKP-MHP alliance holds roughly 321-326 seats in the 600-member parliament, falling short of the 360-vote threshold needed to trigger a referendum under Article 175. Recent senior statements, including those from presidential adviser Mehmet Ucum and Justice Minister Akın Gürlek in September 2026, have instead emphasized using Article 116 to call early elections in April 2028, enabling President Erdoğan’s third-term candidacy without immediate constitutional overhaul. No formal announcement or parliamentary vote scheduling a 2026 referendum has occurred, sustaining trader consensus against the outcome.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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