The 60-day negotiation window established by the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding between the United States and Iran expired on August 17 without formal extension or a final peace accord covering nuclear issues, sanctions relief, or the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump stated publicly that Washington would not extend the MOU, citing insufficient progress and unmet U.S. conditions, while Iranian officials pointed to alleged violations and insisted on returning to prior interim commitments before any further talks. Deadlocked diplomatic channels, mediated by Pakistan and Qatar, showed no last-minute mutual consent despite earlier ceasefire signals. Trader consensus at near-certainty for no extension reflects the confirmed passage of the deadline and explicit statements from both sides. Late developments such as renewed mediator proposals or shifts in military posture on the ground could still prompt informal continuation of talks, though these would not retroactively alter the MOU timeline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
<1% 確率
$2,894,250 Vol.
$2,894,250 Vol.
2026/08/20
はい
<1% 確率
$2,894,250 Vol.
$2,894,250 Vol.
2026/08/20
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement (the MOU), including a 60-day negotiation period toward a “final deal”, extendable by mutual consent.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the United States and Iran publicly and officially announce an extension of the 60-day negotiation period initiated by the MOU between market creation and August 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of a present extension of the 60-day negotiation period, a previously-unannounced prior extension of the 60-day negotiation period, or definitive agreement to extend the 60-day negotiation period.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify an extension of the 60-day negotiation period initiated by the MOU. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an extension, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. However, the announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the MOU by name.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The extension must be mutually announced by the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Mutual announcement means that taken together, the announcements from the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran directly indicate that both parties have agreed to extend the 60-day negotiation period, or have recognized a definitive extension of the period.
The following do not qualify as official announcements:
- Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
- Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States or Iran;
- Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States or Iran will announce or implement an extension of the 60-day negotiation period;
- Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications;
- Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional extension of the 60-day negotiation period rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once an extension has been mutually announced by the United States and Iran, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the extension is ever actually implemented.
Resolution will be based on official information from the United States and Iran, including their official representatives.The 60-day negotiation window established by the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding between the United States and Iran expired on August 17 without formal extension or a final peace accord covering nuclear issues, sanctions relief, or the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump stated publicly that Washington would not extend the MOU, citing insufficient progress and unmet U.S. conditions, while Iranian officials pointed to alleged violations and insisted on returning to prior interim commitments before any further talks. Deadlocked diplomatic channels, mediated by Pakistan and Qatar, showed no last-minute mutual consent despite earlier ceasefire signals. Trader consensus at near-certainty for no extension reflects the confirmed passage of the deadline and explicit statements from both sides. Late developments such as renewed mediator proposals or shifts in military posture on the ground could still prompt informal continuation of talks, though these would not retroactively alter the MOU timeline.
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement (the MOU), including a 60-day negotiation period toward a “final deal”, extendable by mutual consent.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the United States and Iran publicly and officially announce an extension of the 60-day negotiation period initiated by the MOU between market creation and August 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of a present extension of the 60-day negotiation period, a previously-unannounced prior extension of the 60-day negotiation period, or definitive agreement to extend the 60-day negotiation period.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify an extension of the 60-day negotiation period initiated by the MOU. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an extension, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. However, the announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the MOU by name.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The extension must be mutually announced by the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Mutual announcement means that taken together, the announcements from the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran directly indicate that both parties have agreed to extend the 60-day negotiation period, or have recognized a definitive extension of the period.
The following do not qualify as official announcements:
- Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
- Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States or Iran;
- Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States or Iran will announce or implement an extension of the 60-day negotiation period;
- Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications;
- Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional extension of the 60-day negotiation period rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once an extension has been mutually announced by the United States and Iran, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the extension is ever actually implemented.
Resolution will be based on official information from the United States and Iran, including their official representatives.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the United States and Iran publicly and officially announce an extension of the 60-day negotiation period initiated by the MOU between market creation and August 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of a present extension of the 60-day negotiation period, a previously-unannounced prior extension of the 60-day negotiation period, or definitive agreement to extend the 60-day negotiation period.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify an extension of the 60-day negotiation period initiated by the MOU. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an extension, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. However, the announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the MOU by name.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The extension must be mutually announced by the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Mutual announcement means that taken together, the announcements from the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran directly indicate that both parties have agreed to extend the 60-day negotiation period, or have recognized a definitive extension of the period.
The following do not qualify as official announcements:
- Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
- Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States or Iran;
- Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States or Iran will announce or implement an extension of the 60-day negotiation period;
- Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications;
- Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional extension of the 60-day negotiation period rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once an extension has been mutually announced by the United States and Iran, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the extension is ever actually implemented.
Resolution will be based on official information from the United States and Iran, including their official representatives.
マーケット開始日： Jun 24, 2026, 12:51 AM ET
音量
$2,894,250終了日
2026/08/20マーケット開始日
Jun 24, 2026, 12:51 AM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement (the MOU), including a 60-day negotiation period toward a “final deal”, extendable by mutual consent.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the United States and Iran publicly and officially announce an extension of the 60-day negotiation period initiated by the MOU between market creation and August 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of a present extension of the 60-day negotiation period, a previously-unannounced prior extension of the 60-day negotiation period, or definitive agreement to extend the 60-day negotiation period.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify an extension of the 60-day negotiation period initiated by the MOU. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an extension, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. However, the announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the MOU by name.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The extension must be mutually announced by the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Mutual announcement means that taken together, the announcements from the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran directly indicate that both parties have agreed to extend the 60-day negotiation period, or have recognized a definitive extension of the period.
The following do not qualify as official announcements:
- Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
- Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States or Iran;
- Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States or Iran will announce or implement an extension of the 60-day negotiation period;
- Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications;
- Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional extension of the 60-day negotiation period rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once an extension has been mutually announced by the United States and Iran, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the extension is ever actually implemented.
Resolution will be based on official information from the United States and Iran, including their official representatives.The 60-day negotiation window established by the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding between the United States and Iran expired on August 17 without formal extension or a final peace accord covering nuclear issues, sanctions relief, or the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump stated publicly that Washington would not extend the MOU, citing insufficient progress and unmet U.S. conditions, while Iranian officials pointed to alleged violations and insisted on returning to prior interim commitments before any further talks. Deadlocked diplomatic channels, mediated by Pakistan and Qatar, showed no last-minute mutual consent despite earlier ceasefire signals. Trader consensus at near-certainty for no extension reflects the confirmed passage of the deadline and explicit statements from both sides. Late developments such as renewed mediator proposals or shifts in military posture on the ground could still prompt informal continuation of talks, though these would not retroactively alter the MOU timeline.
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement (the MOU), including a 60-day negotiation period toward a “final deal”, extendable by mutual consent.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the United States and Iran publicly and officially announce an extension of the 60-day negotiation period initiated by the MOU between market creation and August 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of a present extension of the 60-day negotiation period, a previously-unannounced prior extension of the 60-day negotiation period, or definitive agreement to extend the 60-day negotiation period.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify an extension of the 60-day negotiation period initiated by the MOU. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an extension, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. However, the announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the MOU by name.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The extension must be mutually announced by the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Mutual announcement means that taken together, the announcements from the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran directly indicate that both parties have agreed to extend the 60-day negotiation period, or have recognized a definitive extension of the period.
The following do not qualify as official announcements:
- Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
- Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States or Iran;
- Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States or Iran will announce or implement an extension of the 60-day negotiation period;
- Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications;
- Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional extension of the 60-day negotiation period rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once an extension has been mutually announced by the United States and Iran, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the extension is ever actually implemented.
Resolution will be based on official information from the United States and Iran, including their official representatives.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the United States and Iran publicly and officially announce an extension of the 60-day negotiation period initiated by the MOU between market creation and August 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of a present extension of the 60-day negotiation period, a previously-unannounced prior extension of the 60-day negotiation period, or definitive agreement to extend the 60-day negotiation period.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify an extension of the 60-day negotiation period initiated by the MOU. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an extension, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. However, the announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the MOU by name.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The extension must be mutually announced by the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Mutual announcement means that taken together, the announcements from the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran directly indicate that both parties have agreed to extend the 60-day negotiation period, or have recognized a definitive extension of the period.
The following do not qualify as official announcements:
- Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
- Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States or Iran;
- Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States or Iran will announce or implement an extension of the 60-day negotiation period;
- Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications;
- Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional extension of the 60-day negotiation period rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once an extension has been mutually announced by the United States and Iran, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the extension is ever actually implemented.
Resolution will be based on official information from the United States and Iran, including their official representatives.
音量
$2,894,250終了日
2026/08/20マーケット開始日
Jun 24, 2026, 12:51 AM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
The 60-day negotiation window established by the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding between the United States and Iran expired on August 17 without formal extension or a final peace accord covering nuclear issues, sanctions relief, or the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump stated publicly that Washington would not extend the MOU, citing insufficient progress and unmet U.S. conditions, while Iranian officials pointed to alleged violations and insisted on returning to prior interim commitments before any further talks. Deadlocked diplomatic channels, mediated by Pakistan and Qatar, showed no last-minute mutual consent despite earlier ceasefire signals. Trader consensus at near-certainty for no extension reflects the confirmed passage of the deadline and explicit statements from both sides. Late developments such as renewed mediator proposals or shifts in military posture on the ground could still prompt informal continuation of talks, though these would not retroactively alter the MOU timeline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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