President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with other nations, citing Russian and Chinese activities, remains the primary catalyst shaping trader views on timelines for any explosive test. Subsequent clarifications from administration officials emphasize ongoing assessments rather than immediate yield-producing detonations, with the Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration relying on subcritical experiments, simulations, and the stockpile stewardship program to maintain readiness. Technical requirements at the Nevada National Security Site, including site preparation and safety protocols, create substantial lead times, while New START's expiration and congressional oversight introduce additional procedural checks. No explosive test has occurred since the 1992 moratorium, and official statements continue to distinguish between full-scale testing and other activities. Policy reviews and funding decisions through 2026 could influence any shift in approach.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$768,750 Vol.
2026/09/30
2026年9月30日
1%
2026年12月31日
4%
$768,750 Vol.
2026年9月30日
$57,189 Vol.
1%
2026年12月31日
$50,749 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with other nations, citing Russian and Chinese activities, remains the primary catalyst shaping trader views on timelines for any explosive test. Subsequent clarifications from administration officials emphasize ongoing assessments rather than immediate yield-producing detonations, with the Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration relying on subcritical experiments, simulations, and the stockpile stewardship program to maintain readiness. Technical requirements at the Nevada National Security Site, including site preparation and safety protocols, create substantial lead times, while New START's expiration and congressional oversight introduce additional procedural checks. No explosive test has occurred since the 1992 moratorium, and official statements continue to distinguish between full-scale testing and other activities. Policy reviews and funding decisions through 2026 could influence any shift in approach.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
音量
$768,750終了日
2026/03/31マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with other nations, citing Russian and Chinese activities, remains the primary catalyst shaping trader views on timelines for any explosive test. Subsequent clarifications from administration officials emphasize ongoing assessments rather than immediate yield-producing detonations, with the Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration relying on subcritical experiments, simulations, and the stockpile stewardship program to maintain readiness. Technical requirements at the Nevada National Security Site, including site preparation and safety protocols, create substantial lead times, while New START's expiration and congressional oversight introduce additional procedural checks. No explosive test has occurred since the 1992 moratorium, and official statements continue to distinguish between full-scale testing and other activities. Policy reviews and funding decisions through 2026 could influence any shift in approach.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$768,750終了日
2026/03/31マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with other nations, citing Russian and Chinese activities, remains the primary catalyst shaping trader views on timelines for any explosive test. Subsequent clarifications from administration officials emphasize ongoing assessments rather than immediate yield-producing detonations, with the Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration relying on subcritical experiments, simulations, and the stockpile stewardship program to maintain readiness. Technical requirements at the Nevada National Security Site, including site preparation and safety protocols, create substantial lead times, while New START's expiration and congressional oversight introduce additional procedural checks. No explosive test has occurred since the 1992 moratorium, and official statements continue to distinguish between full-scale testing and other activities. Policy reviews and funding decisions through 2026 could influence any shift in approach.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問