Traders assign a 97.3% probability against a US-China tariff agreement by August 31 because bilateral talks remain in a structured, extended phase rather than accelerating toward an imminent deal. Prior truces have already suspended or reduced key reciprocal tariffs until November 2026, while the newly formed Board of Trade continues public consultations and framework discussions on roughly $30 billion in reciprocal cuts, a process that has advanced incrementally through mid-2026 without short-term deadlines. Broader US Section 301 reviews, new global tariff actions, and domestic policy priorities further indicate that negotiators are managing tensions through phased steps rather than rushing a comprehensive accord in the next two weeks. A sudden high-level announcement or breakthrough could still shift the outcome before month-end, though current diplomatic timelines and procedural requirements make such a development unlikely.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日3% 確率
新規
新規
2026/08/31
3% 確率
新規
新規
2026/08/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Traders assign a 97.3% probability against a US-China tariff agreement by August 31 because bilateral talks remain in a structured, extended phase rather than accelerating toward an imminent deal. Prior truces have already suspended or reduced key reciprocal tariffs until November 2026, while the newly formed Board of Trade continues public consultations and framework discussions on roughly $30 billion in reciprocal cuts, a process that has advanced incrementally through mid-2026 without short-term deadlines. Broader US Section 301 reviews, new global tariff actions, and domestic policy priorities further indicate that negotiators are managing tensions through phased steps rather than rushing a comprehensive accord in the next two weeks. A sudden high-level announcement or breakthrough could still shift the outcome before month-end, though current diplomatic timelines and procedural requirements make such a development unlikely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
マーケット開始日： Jul 31, 2026, 4:15 PM ET
音量
$2,380終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Jul 31, 2026, 4:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Traders assign a 97.3% probability against a US-China tariff agreement by August 31 because bilateral talks remain in a structured, extended phase rather than accelerating toward an imminent deal. Prior truces have already suspended or reduced key reciprocal tariffs until November 2026, while the newly formed Board of Trade continues public consultations and framework discussions on roughly $30 billion in reciprocal cuts, a process that has advanced incrementally through mid-2026 without short-term deadlines. Broader US Section 301 reviews, new global tariff actions, and domestic policy priorities further indicate that negotiators are managing tensions through phased steps rather than rushing a comprehensive accord in the next two weeks. A sudden high-level announcement or breakthrough could still shift the outcome before month-end, though current diplomatic timelines and procedural requirements make such a development unlikely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
音量
$2,380終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Jul 31, 2026, 4:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 97.3% probability against a US-China tariff agreement by August 31 because bilateral talks remain in a structured, extended phase rather than accelerating toward an imminent deal. Prior truces have already suspended or reduced key reciprocal tariffs until November 2026, while the newly formed Board of Trade continues public consultations and framework discussions on roughly $30 billion in reciprocal cuts, a process that has advanced incrementally through mid-2026 without short-term deadlines. Broader US Section 301 reviews, new global tariff actions, and domestic policy priorities further indicate that negotiators are managing tensions through phased steps rather than rushing a comprehensive accord in the next two weeks. A sudden high-level announcement or breakthrough could still shift the outcome before month-end, though current diplomatic timelines and procedural requirements make such a development unlikely.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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