Recent record warmth, including August 2026 as the joint hottest month globally per Copernicus, NOAA, and Berkeley Earth data at 1.65°C above the 1850–1900 baseline, combined with an intensifying super El Niño, has driven 2026’s year-to-date global temperature anomaly to second place behind 2024. This ocean-atmosphere heat release and sustained high sea surface temperatures position the year for a likely first-place finish among annual records, consistent with expert assessments of roughly 75–93% probability. The market’s heavy weighting toward top-two outcomes reflects these trends while acknowledging uncertainty in the final four months and potential model divergence in seasonal forecasts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日View resolved

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