Trader consensus shows a tight contest among several cabinet officials for the next departure, with Tulsi Gabbard at 38 percent reflecting assessments of her position's alignment with administration priorities. Howard Lutnick at 28.8 percent and the 27.5 percent probability of no exit before 2027 capture expectations of stability or targeted adjustments ahead of the 2026 midterms. Chris Wright, Susie Wiles, and Marco Rubio trail closely as traders evaluate departmental performance, policy execution, and potential executive branch reshuffling. Factors such as Senate oversight, public statements on foreign policy or economic strategy, and cabinet loyalty could widen gaps among contenders. Scheduled legislative activity and any official announcements on roles remain key variables that may influence future probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Tulsi Gabbard 38%
Howard Lutnick 30.3%
None before 2027 27%
Scott Bessent 13.9%
$11,675 Vol.
$11,675 Vol.
2026/12/31
Tulsi Gabbard
38%
Howard Lutnick
30%
None before 2027
27%
Scott Bessent
14%
Susie Wiles
24%
Marco Rubio
24%
Pete Hegseth
4%
Brooke Rollins
3%
John Ratcliffe
3%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
2%
J.D. Vance
2%
Russell T. Vought
2%
Scott Turner
1%
Mike Waltz
1%
Lee Zeldin
1%
Doug Burgum
1%
Doug Collins
1%
Linda McMahon
1%
Sean Duffy
<1%
Kelly Loeffler
<1%
Jamieson Greer
<1%
Chris Wright
31%
Tulsi Gabbard 38%
Howard Lutnick 30.3%
None before 2027 27%
Scott Bessent 13.9%
$11,675 Vol.
$11,675 Vol.
2026/12/31
Tulsi Gabbard
$3,210 Vol.
38%
Howard Lutnick
$2,009 Vol.
30%
None before 2027
$223 Vol.
27%
Scott Bessent
$233 Vol.
14%
Susie Wiles
$326 Vol.
24%
Marco Rubio
$294 Vol.
24%
Pete Hegseth
$628 Vol.
4%
Brooke Rollins
$218 Vol.
3%
John Ratcliffe
$259 Vol.
3%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$333 Vol.
2%
J.D. Vance
$415 Vol.
2%
Russell T. Vought
$268 Vol.
2%
Scott Turner
$352 Vol.
1%
Mike Waltz
$270 Vol.
1%
Lee Zeldin
$294 Vol.
1%
Doug Burgum
$281 Vol.
1%
Doug Collins
$318 Vol.
1%
Linda McMahon
$321 Vol.
1%
Sean Duffy
$325 Vol.
<1%
Kelly Loeffler
$475 Vol.
<1%
Jamieson Greer
$233 Vol.
<1%
Chris Wright
$390 Vol.
31%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Trader consensus shows a tight contest among several cabinet officials for the next departure, with Tulsi Gabbard at 38 percent reflecting assessments of her position's alignment with administration priorities. Howard Lutnick at 28.8 percent and the 27.5 percent probability of no exit before 2027 capture expectations of stability or targeted adjustments ahead of the 2026 midterms. Chris Wright, Susie Wiles, and Marco Rubio trail closely as traders evaluate departmental performance, policy execution, and potential executive branch reshuffling. Factors such as Senate oversight, public statements on foreign policy or economic strategy, and cabinet loyalty could widen gaps among contenders. Scheduled legislative activity and any official announcements on roles remain key variables that may influence future probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Apr 20, 2026, 8:13 PM ET
音量
$11,675終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Apr 20, 2026, 8:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Trader consensus shows a tight contest among several cabinet officials for the next departure, with Tulsi Gabbard at 38 percent reflecting assessments of her position's alignment with administration priorities. Howard Lutnick at 28.8 percent and the 27.5 percent probability of no exit before 2027 capture expectations of stability or targeted adjustments ahead of the 2026 midterms. Chris Wright, Susie Wiles, and Marco Rubio trail closely as traders evaluate departmental performance, policy execution, and potential executive branch reshuffling. Factors such as Senate oversight, public statements on foreign policy or economic strategy, and cabinet loyalty could widen gaps among contenders. Scheduled legislative activity and any official announcements on roles remain key variables that may influence future probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
音量
$11,675終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Apr 20, 2026, 8:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus shows a tight contest among several cabinet officials for the next departure, with Tulsi Gabbard at 38 percent reflecting assessments of her position's alignment with administration priorities. Howard Lutnick at 28.8 percent and the 27.5 percent probability of no exit before 2027 capture expectations of stability or targeted adjustments ahead of the 2026 midterms. Chris Wright, Susie Wiles, and Marco Rubio trail closely as traders evaluate departmental performance, policy execution, and potential executive branch reshuffling. Factors such as Senate oversight, public statements on foreign policy or economic strategy, and cabinet loyalty could widen gaps among contenders. Scheduled legislative activity and any official announcements on roles remain key variables that may influence future probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問