Trader consensus on the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline remaining unchanged through December 2026 rests on the stability of underlying carbon budget estimates and emissions trajectories, with recent assessments placing the 50% likelihood remaining budget at roughly 130 GtCO2 from early 2026 amid annual emissions near 42 GtCO2. Human-induced warming reached 1.37°C in 2025 at a rate of 0.27°C per decade, consistent with prior model runs from sources like the Copernicus Climate Change Service and ongoing Global Carbon Budget updates, without abrupt revisions to methodologies or major IPCC reassessments. Incremental clock adjustments occur with quarterly or annual data releases, but significant deadline shifts require sustained emissions reductions or new observational baselines unlikely before year-end. Key upcoming factors include COP31 preparations and 2026 emissions reporting, though historical patterns show limited near-term volatility in these projections.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日10% 確率
$12,981 Vol.
$12,981 Vol.
2026/12/31
10% 確率
$12,981 Vol.
$12,981 Vol.
2026/12/31
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.Trader consensus on the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline remaining unchanged through December 2026 rests on the stability of underlying carbon budget estimates and emissions trajectories, with recent assessments placing the 50% likelihood remaining budget at roughly 130 GtCO2 from early 2026 amid annual emissions near 42 GtCO2. Human-induced warming reached 1.37°C in 2025 at a rate of 0.27°C per decade, consistent with prior model runs from sources like the Copernicus Climate Change Service and ongoing Global Carbon Budget updates, without abrupt revisions to methodologies or major IPCC reassessments. Incremental clock adjustments occur with quarterly or annual data releases, but significant deadline shifts require sustained emissions reductions or new observational baselines unlikely before year-end. Key upcoming factors include COP31 preparations and 2026 emissions reporting, though historical patterns show limited near-term volatility in these projections.
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
マーケット開始日： Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ET
音量
$12,981終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.Trader consensus on the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline remaining unchanged through December 2026 rests on the stability of underlying carbon budget estimates and emissions trajectories, with recent assessments placing the 50% likelihood remaining budget at roughly 130 GtCO2 from early 2026 amid annual emissions near 42 GtCO2. Human-induced warming reached 1.37°C in 2025 at a rate of 0.27°C per decade, consistent with prior model runs from sources like the Copernicus Climate Change Service and ongoing Global Carbon Budget updates, without abrupt revisions to methodologies or major IPCC reassessments. Incremental clock adjustments occur with quarterly or annual data releases, but significant deadline shifts require sustained emissions reductions or new observational baselines unlikely before year-end. Key upcoming factors include COP31 preparations and 2026 emissions reporting, though historical patterns show limited near-term volatility in these projections.
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
音量
$12,981終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline remaining unchanged through December 2026 rests on the stability of underlying carbon budget estimates and emissions trajectories, with recent assessments placing the 50% likelihood remaining budget at roughly 130 GtCO2 from early 2026 amid annual emissions near 42 GtCO2. Human-induced warming reached 1.37°C in 2025 at a rate of 0.27°C per decade, consistent with prior model runs from sources like the Copernicus Climate Change Service and ongoing Global Carbon Budget updates, without abrupt revisions to methodologies or major IPCC reassessments. Incremental clock adjustments occur with quarterly or annual data releases, but significant deadline shifts require sustained emissions reductions or new observational baselines unlikely before year-end. Key upcoming factors include COP31 preparations and 2026 emissions reporting, though historical patterns show limited near-term volatility in these projections.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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