Tropical Storm Karina, currently at 60–70 kt sustained winds over the eastern Pacific well southwest of Baja California, faces highly favorable conditions for rapid strengthening, including sea surface temperatures near 29°C, low vertical wind shear, and a moist mid-level environment. National Hurricane Center forecasts explicitly project the system reaching hurricane intensity later tonight or within the next day, with most dynamical and statistical guidance, including SHIPS and ensemble models, supporting a peak near or above major hurricane strength early next week before encountering cooler waters and drier air. This near-term intensification path underpins the 99.5% market-implied probability for reaching hurricane status. Residual uncertainty stems mainly from potential delays in inner-core organization or unexpected shear increases, though current observations and model consensus make such outcomes unlikely before the threshold is crossed.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日熱帯低気圧カリーナはハリケーンに強くなりますか？
熱帯低気圧カリーナはハリケーンに強くなりますか？
はい
99% 確率
新規
新規
2026/09/05
はい
99% 確率
新規
新規
2026/09/05
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Karina reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Karina reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Karina is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Karina does not reach hurricane strength by September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".Tropical Storm Karina, currently at 60–70 kt sustained winds over the eastern Pacific well southwest of Baja California, faces highly favorable conditions for rapid strengthening, including sea surface temperatures near 29°C, low vertical wind shear, and a moist mid-level environment. National Hurricane Center forecasts explicitly project the system reaching hurricane intensity later tonight or within the next day, with most dynamical and statistical guidance, including SHIPS and ensemble models, supporting a peak near or above major hurricane strength early next week before encountering cooler waters and drier air. This near-term intensification path underpins the 99.5% market-implied probability for reaching hurricane status. Residual uncertainty stems mainly from potential delays in inner-core organization or unexpected shear increases, though current observations and model consensus make such outcomes unlikely before the threshold is crossed.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Karina reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Karina reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Karina is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Karina does not reach hurricane strength by September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Karina reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Karina is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Karina does not reach hurricane strength by September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
マーケット開始日： Aug 27, 2026, 5:19 PM ET
音量
$4,797終了日
2026/09/06マーケット開始日
Aug 27, 2026, 5:19 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Karina reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Karina reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Karina is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Karina does not reach hurricane strength by September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".Tropical Storm Karina, currently at 60–70 kt sustained winds over the eastern Pacific well southwest of Baja California, faces highly favorable conditions for rapid strengthening, including sea surface temperatures near 29°C, low vertical wind shear, and a moist mid-level environment. National Hurricane Center forecasts explicitly project the system reaching hurricane intensity later tonight or within the next day, with most dynamical and statistical guidance, including SHIPS and ensemble models, supporting a peak near or above major hurricane strength early next week before encountering cooler waters and drier air. This near-term intensification path underpins the 99.5% market-implied probability for reaching hurricane status. Residual uncertainty stems mainly from potential delays in inner-core organization or unexpected shear increases, though current observations and model consensus make such outcomes unlikely before the threshold is crossed.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Karina reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Karina reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Karina is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Karina does not reach hurricane strength by September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Karina reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Karina is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Karina does not reach hurricane strength by September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
音量
$4,797終了日
2026/09/06マーケット開始日
Aug 27, 2026, 5:19 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Tropical Storm Karina, currently at 60–70 kt sustained winds over the eastern Pacific well southwest of Baja California, faces highly favorable conditions for rapid strengthening, including sea surface temperatures near 29°C, low vertical wind shear, and a moist mid-level environment. National Hurricane Center forecasts explicitly project the system reaching hurricane intensity later tonight or within the next day, with most dynamical and statistical guidance, including SHIPS and ensemble models, supporting a peak near or above major hurricane strength early next week before encountering cooler waters and drier air. This near-term intensification path underpins the 99.5% market-implied probability for reaching hurricane status. Residual uncertainty stems mainly from potential delays in inner-core organization or unexpected shear increases, though current observations and model consensus make such outcomes unlikely before the threshold is crossed.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問