**The January 3, 2026 U.S. military operation that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro remains the sole verified instance of a sitting head of state taken into U.S. custody this year.** Subsequent U.S. actions, including indictments targeting figures such as former Cuban leader Raúl Castro and related diplomatic pressure on Cuba, have produced no additional captures or extraditions. With roughly eight months elapsed and no confirmed ground operations underway against other active heads of state of UN member countries, trader consensus places the probability of a second qualifying capture before December 31 at only about 5.5%. The market resolution criteria require direct U.S. personnel participation on the ground in an operation resulting in physical detention, excluding intelligence, logistics, or advisory support alone. No comparable military or law-enforcement developments have emerged since the Maduro operation to shift these odds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
6% 確率
$81,144 Vol.
$81,144 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
6% 確率
$81,144 Vol.
$81,144 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**The January 3, 2026 U.S. military operation that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro remains the sole verified instance of a sitting head of state taken into U.S. custody this year.** Subsequent U.S. actions, including indictments targeting figures such as former Cuban leader Raúl Castro and related diplomatic pressure on Cuba, have produced no additional captures or extraditions.
With roughly eight months elapsed and no confirmed ground operations underway against other active heads of state of UN member countries, trader consensus places the probability of a second qualifying capture before December 31 at only about 5.5%. The market resolution criteria require direct U.S. personnel participation on the ground in an operation resulting in physical detention, excluding intelligence, logistics, or advisory support alone.
No comparable military or law-enforcement developments have emerged since the Maduro operation to shift these odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ET
音量
$81,144終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**The January 3, 2026 U.S. military operation that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro remains the sole verified instance of a sitting head of state taken into U.S. custody this year.** Subsequent U.S. actions, including indictments targeting figures such as former Cuban leader Raúl Castro and related diplomatic pressure on Cuba, have produced no additional captures or extraditions.
With roughly eight months elapsed and no confirmed ground operations underway against other active heads of state of UN member countries, trader consensus places the probability of a second qualifying capture before December 31 at only about 5.5%. The market resolution criteria require direct U.S. personnel participation on the ground in an operation resulting in physical detention, excluding intelligence, logistics, or advisory support alone.
No comparable military or law-enforcement developments have emerged since the Maduro operation to shift these odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$81,144終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...**The January 3, 2026 U.S. military operation that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro remains the sole verified instance of a sitting head of state taken into U.S. custody this year.** Subsequent U.S. actions, including indictments targeting figures such as former Cuban leader Raúl Castro and related diplomatic pressure on Cuba, have produced no additional captures or extraditions. With roughly eight months elapsed and no confirmed ground operations underway against other active heads of state of UN member countries, trader consensus places the probability of a second qualifying capture before December 31 at only about 5.5%. The market resolution criteria require direct U.S. personnel participation on the ground in an operation resulting in physical detention, excluding intelligence, logistics, or advisory support alone. No comparable military or law-enforcement developments have emerged since the Maduro operation to shift these odds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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