The 2026 Aberdeen South by-election, triggered by SNP MP Stephen Flynn’s resignation after his election to Holyrood, features a crowded field with nominations closing in late May. The tight trader consensus around 50% for leading contenders reflects limited polling, a brief campaign window ahead of the 18 June vote, and competition centered on North Sea energy policy, where SNP, Conservative, and Reform candidates emphasize jobs in oil and gas while Labour and others highlight transition plans. Recent candidate selections, including experienced figures like former MP Richard Thomson for the SNP and MSP Douglas Lumsden for the Conservatives, have kept probabilities closely matched. Fresh developments such as targeted campaigning on local economic concerns or any late polling shifts could quickly widen gaps among the frontrunners.