Incumbent Republican Rep. French Hill's commanding position in solidly Republican Arkansas's 2nd Congressional District drives trader consensus toward an 87% implied probability for the GOP in the November 3 general election, reflecting the district's R+8 Cook Partisan Voter Index and his unchallenged primary victory on March 3. Democrat Chris Jones, the 2022 gubernatorial nominee who secured his party's nomination with 93% of the primary vote, faces steep barriers including Hill's fundraising dominance—estimated at over $5 million raised post-primary—and historical incumbent re-election rates exceeding 90% in similar safe seats. Absent late polling shifts, scandals, or national midterm waves, recent campaign filings underscore Hill's financial edge as the key stabilizer for current pricing.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican Party
87%
Democratic Party
13%
신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican Party
$2,280 거래량
87%
Democratic Party
$5,016 거래량
13%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Rep. French Hill's commanding position in solidly Republican Arkansas's 2nd Congressional District drives trader consensus toward an 87% implied probability for the GOP in the November 3 general election, reflecting the district's R+8 Cook Partisan Voter Index and his unchallenged primary victory on March 3. Democrat Chris Jones, the 2022 gubernatorial nominee who secured his party's nomination with 93% of the primary vote, faces steep barriers including Hill's fundraising dominance—estimated at over $5 million raised post-primary—and historical incumbent re-election rates exceeding 90% in similar safe seats. Absent late polling shifts, scandals, or national midterm waves, recent campaign filings underscore Hill's financial edge as the key stabilizer for current pricing.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
거래량
$7,296종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Rep. French Hill's commanding position in solidly Republican Arkansas's 2nd Congressional District drives trader consensus toward an 87% implied probability for the GOP in the November 3 general election, reflecting the district's R+8 Cook Partisan Voter Index and his unchallenged primary victory on March 3. Democrat Chris Jones, the 2022 gubernatorial nominee who secured his party's nomination with 93% of the primary vote, faces steep barriers including Hill's fundraising dominance—estimated at over $5 million raised post-primary—and historical incumbent re-election rates exceeding 90% in similar safe seats. Absent late polling shifts, scandals, or national midterm waves, recent campaign filings underscore Hill's financial edge as the key stabilizer for current pricing.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$7,296종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Rep. French Hill's commanding position in solidly Republican Arkansas's 2nd Congressional District drives trader consensus toward an 87% implied probability for the GOP in the November 3 general election, reflecting the district's R+8 Cook Partisan Voter Index and his unchallenged primary victory on March 3. Democrat Chris Jones, the 2022 gubernatorial nominee who secured his party's nomination with 93% of the primary vote, faces steep barriers including Hill's fundraising dominance—estimated at over $5 million raised post-primary—and historical incumbent re-election rates exceeding 90% in similar safe seats. Absent late polling shifts, scandals, or national midterm waves, recent campaign filings underscore Hill's financial edge as the key stabilizer for current pricing.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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