Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Ciro Gomes at 63.5% implied probability to win the Ceará gubernatorial election on October 4, 2026, reflecting his consistent leads in recent polls like Genial/Quaest (April 24-28), where he garnered 41% in the first round against incumbent Elmano de Freitas's 32%, and won head-to-head 46%-35%. Ciro's confirmation earlier this week that he will run for governor rather than president, with a formal launch scheduled for May 16, has solidified his frontrunner status as a former governor with strong name recognition. Elmano trails at 22.5%, while PT senator Camilo Santana at 8.2% gains traction amid speculation of a potential replacement due to better runoff showings against Ciro. Right-wing Eduardo Girão holds 7%, but fragmentation favors Ciro's path to avoiding a runoff. Upcoming polls and PT decisions could shift dynamics.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Ciro Gomes 64%
Elmano de Freitas 22%
카밀루 산타나 7.1%
Eduardo Girão 3.6%
$53,172 거래량
$53,172 거래량
2026.10.04
Ciro Gomes
64%
Elmano de Freitas
22%
카밀루 산타나
7%
Eduardo Girão
7%
Roberto Cláudio
2%
Capitão Wagner
<1%
Ciro Gomes 64%
Elmano de Freitas 22%
카밀루 산타나 7.1%
Eduardo Girão 3.6%
$53,172 거래량
$53,172 거래량
2026.10.04
Ciro Gomes
$35,966 거래량
64%
Elmano de Freitas
$5,656 거래량
22%
카밀루 산타나
$2,887 거래량
7%
Eduardo Girão
$3,074 거래량
7%
Roberto Cláudio
$1,784 거래량
2%
Capitão Wagner
$3,805 거래량
<1%
The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Ciro Gomes at 63.5% implied probability to win the Ceará gubernatorial election on October 4, 2026, reflecting his consistent leads in recent polls like Genial/Quaest (April 24-28), where he garnered 41% in the first round against incumbent Elmano de Freitas's 32%, and won head-to-head 46%-35%. Ciro's confirmation earlier this week that he will run for governor rather than president, with a formal launch scheduled for May 16, has solidified his frontrunner status as a former governor with strong name recognition. Elmano trails at 22.5%, while PT senator Camilo Santana at 8.2% gains traction amid speculation of a potential replacement due to better runoff showings against Ciro. Right-wing Eduardo Girão holds 7%, but fragmentation favors Ciro's path to avoiding a runoff. Upcoming polls and PT decisions could shift dynamics.
The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
마켓 개설일: Apr 27, 2026, 5:33 PM ET
거래량
$53,172종료일
2026.10.04마켓 개설일
Apr 27, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Ciro Gomes at 63.5% implied probability to win the Ceará gubernatorial election on October 4, 2026, reflecting his consistent leads in recent polls like Genial/Quaest (April 24-28), where he garnered 41% in the first round against incumbent Elmano de Freitas's 32%, and won head-to-head 46%-35%. Ciro's confirmation earlier this week that he will run for governor rather than president, with a formal launch scheduled for May 16, has solidified his frontrunner status as a former governor with strong name recognition. Elmano trails at 22.5%, while PT senator Camilo Santana at 8.2% gains traction amid speculation of a potential replacement due to better runoff showings against Ciro. Right-wing Eduardo Girão holds 7%, but fragmentation favors Ciro's path to avoiding a runoff. Upcoming polls and PT decisions could shift dynamics.
The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
거래량
$53,172종료일
2026.10.04마켓 개설일
Apr 27, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Ciro Gomes at 63.5% implied probability to win the Ceará gubernatorial election on October 4, 2026, reflecting his consistent leads in recent polls like Genial/Quaest (April 24-28), where he garnered 41% in the first round against incumbent Elmano de Freitas's 32%, and won head-to-head 46%-35%. Ciro's confirmation earlier this week that he will run for governor rather than president, with a formal launch scheduled for May 16, has solidified his frontrunner status as a former governor with strong name recognition. Elmano trails at 22.5%, while PT senator Camilo Santana at 8.2% gains traction amid speculation of a potential replacement due to better runoff showings against Ciro. Right-wing Eduardo Girão holds 7%, but fragmentation favors Ciro's path to avoiding a runoff. Upcoming polls and PT decisions could shift dynamics.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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