Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System converge on a daytime maximum near 22 °C for Istanbul on May 18, aligning with the mid-May climatological average of 20–22 °C recorded by the Turkish State Meteorological Service. This consensus, reinforced by stable high-pressure patterns and moderate southerly flow over the Marmara region, underpins the tight 32.5 % and 29.5 % market shares for 21 °C and 22 °C. Minor model spreads in boundary-layer mixing and sea-breeze timing create the observed uncertainty between these two bins, while the 13.9 % probability assigned to 23 °C or higher reflects the limited chance of stronger daytime heating if cloud cover remains below forecast levels. Traders are monitoring the next 12z model runs for any shift in the thermal ridge before resolution tomorrow evening.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트5월 18일 이스탄불에서 가장 높은 기온을 기록하셨나요?
5월 18일 이스탄불에서 가장 높은 기온을 기록하셨나요?
21°C 32%
22°C 30%
20°C 16%
23°C or higher 12.8%
신규
신규
2026.05.18
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
5%
20°C
16%
21°C
32%
22°C
30%
23°C or higher
13%
21°C 32%
22°C 30%
20°C 16%
23°C or higher 12.8%
신규
신규
2026.05.18
13°C or below
$589 거래량
<1%
14°C
$829 거래량
<1%
15°C
$1,124 거래량
<1%
16°C
$800 거래량
<1%
17°C
$1,704 거래량
<1%
18°C
$1,212 거래량
<1%
19°C
$973 거래량
5%
20°C
$442 거래량
16%
21°C
$510 거래량
32%
22°C
$402 거래량
30%
23°C or higher
$1,371 거래량
13%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System converge on a daytime maximum near 22 °C for Istanbul on May 18, aligning with the mid-May climatological average of 20–22 °C recorded by the Turkish State Meteorological Service. This consensus, reinforced by stable high-pressure patterns and moderate southerly flow over the Marmara region, underpins the tight 32.5 % and 29.5 % market shares for 21 °C and 22 °C. Minor model spreads in boundary-layer mixing and sea-breeze timing create the observed uncertainty between these two bins, while the 13.9 % probability assigned to 23 °C or higher reflects the limited chance of stronger daytime heating if cloud cover remains below forecast levels. Traders are monitoring the next 12z model runs for any shift in the thermal ridge before resolution tomorrow evening.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
마켓 개설일: May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
거래량
$9,760종료일
2026.05.18마켓 개설일
May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System converge on a daytime maximum near 22 °C for Istanbul on May 18, aligning with the mid-May climatological average of 20–22 °C recorded by the Turkish State Meteorological Service. This consensus, reinforced by stable high-pressure patterns and moderate southerly flow over the Marmara region, underpins the tight 32.5 % and 29.5 % market shares for 21 °C and 22 °C. Minor model spreads in boundary-layer mixing and sea-breeze timing create the observed uncertainty between these two bins, while the 13.9 % probability assigned to 23 °C or higher reflects the limited chance of stronger daytime heating if cloud cover remains below forecast levels. Traders are monitoring the next 12z model runs for any shift in the thermal ridge before resolution tomorrow evening.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
거래량
$9,760종료일
2026.05.18마켓 개설일
May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ETLatest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System converge on a daytime maximum near 22 °C for Istanbul on May 18, aligning with the mid-May climatological average of 20–22 °C recorded by the Turkish State Meteorological Service. This consensus, reinforced by stable high-pressure patterns and moderate southerly flow over the Marmara region, underpins the tight 32.5 % and 29.5 % market shares for 21 °C and 22 °C. Minor model spreads in boundary-layer mixing and sea-breeze timing create the observed uncertainty between these two bins, while the 13.9 % probability assigned to 23 °C or higher reflects the limited chance of stronger daytime heating if cloud cover remains below forecast levels. Traders are monitoring the next 12z model runs for any shift in the thermal ridge before resolution tomorrow evening.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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