Elevated inflation pressures stemming from the Middle East conflict and hotter-than-expected CPI readings have driven the market-implied odds for zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 to 70.5%, reflecting trader consensus that the central bank will maintain its current 3.50%-3.75% target range. Recent data showing resilient labor market conditions and rising energy prices have prompted brokerages including BofA to push back any easing until 2027, while CME FedWatch futures now assign roughly 60% probability to a potential 25 basis point hike by early 2027. This pricing aligns with the Fed’s April hold decision and incoming Chair Kevin Warsh’s cautious stance amid persistent price risks. Upcoming FOMC meetings and June inflation releases remain key catalysts that could further entrench or modestly adjust these probabilities if labor market or energy trends shift.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트0 (0bp) 70.5%
1회 (25bp) 16%
2회 (50bp) 7%
3회 (75bp) 2.7%
$26,921,204 거래량
$26,921,204 거래량
2026.12.31
0 (0bp)
71%
1회 (25bp)
16%
2회 (50bp)
7%
3회 (75bp)
3%
4회 (100bp)
1%
5회 (125bp)
1%
6회 (150bp)
1%
7회 (175bp)
<1%
8회 (200bp)
<1%
9회 (225bp)
<1%
10회 (250bp)
<1%
11회 (275bp)
<1%
12회 이상 (300bp 이상)
1%
0 (0bp) 70.5%
1회 (25bp) 16%
2회 (50bp) 7%
3회 (75bp) 2.7%
$26,921,204 거래량
$26,921,204 거래량
2026.12.31
0 (0bp)
$4,188,540 거래량
71%
1회 (25bp)
$1,244,767 거래량
16%
2회 (50bp)
$1,204,248 거래량
7%
3회 (75bp)
$1,113,801 거래량
3%
4회 (100bp)
$1,196,177 거래량
1%
5회 (125bp)
$1,417,689 거래량
1%
6회 (150bp)
$2,489,880 거래량
1%
7회 (175bp)
$1,324,074 거래량
<1%
8회 (200bp)
$1,733,248 거래량
<1%
9회 (225bp)
$2,454,875 거래량
<1%
10회 (250bp)
$3,123,377 거래량
<1%
11회 (275bp)
$3,273,723 거래량
<1%
12회 이상 (300bp 이상)
$2,157,367 거래량
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Elevated inflation pressures stemming from the Middle East conflict and hotter-than-expected CPI readings have driven the market-implied odds for zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 to 70.5%, reflecting trader consensus that the central bank will maintain its current 3.50%-3.75% target range. Recent data showing resilient labor market conditions and rising energy prices have prompted brokerages including BofA to push back any easing until 2027, while CME FedWatch futures now assign roughly 60% probability to a potential 25 basis point hike by early 2027. This pricing aligns with the Fed’s April hold decision and incoming Chair Kevin Warsh’s cautious stance amid persistent price risks. Upcoming FOMC meetings and June inflation releases remain key catalysts that could further entrench or modestly adjust these probabilities if labor market or energy trends shift.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
마켓 개설일: Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
거래량
$26,921,204종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Elevated inflation pressures stemming from the Middle East conflict and hotter-than-expected CPI readings have driven the market-implied odds for zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 to 70.5%, reflecting trader consensus that the central bank will maintain its current 3.50%-3.75% target range. Recent data showing resilient labor market conditions and rising energy prices have prompted brokerages including BofA to push back any easing until 2027, while CME FedWatch futures now assign roughly 60% probability to a potential 25 basis point hike by early 2027. This pricing aligns with the Fed’s April hold decision and incoming Chair Kevin Warsh’s cautious stance amid persistent price risks. Upcoming FOMC meetings and June inflation releases remain key catalysts that could further entrench or modestly adjust these probabilities if labor market or energy trends shift.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
거래량
$26,921,204종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Elevated inflation pressures stemming from the Middle East conflict and hotter-than-expected CPI readings have driven the market-implied odds for zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 to 70.5%, reflecting trader consensus that the central bank will maintain its current 3.50%-3.75% target range. Recent data showing resilient labor market conditions and rising energy prices have prompted brokerages including BofA to push back any easing until 2027, while CME FedWatch futures now assign roughly 60% probability to a potential 25 basis point hike by early 2027. This pricing aligns with the Fed’s April hold decision and incoming Chair Kevin Warsh’s cautious stance amid persistent price risks. Upcoming FOMC meetings and June inflation releases remain key catalysts that could further entrench or modestly adjust these probabilities if labor market or energy trends shift.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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