Elevated inflation risks from recent energy price spikes tied to Middle East tensions, alongside resilient labor market data, have anchored trader expectations for no Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026. Market-implied odds now assign a dominant 70.3% probability to zero cuts, reflecting broker forecasts from BofA and Goldman Sachs that push any easing into 2027 amid hotter-than-expected CPI readings and steady consumer spending. With the federal funds rate holding at 3.50%-3.75%, recent FOMC minutes and CME FedWatch pricing underscore a cautious policy stance that prioritizes inflation control over growth support. Upcoming data releases on employment and prices will test whether this consensus holds or allows modest easing later in the year.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트0 (0bp) 70.2%
1회 (25bp) 16%
2회 (50bp) 7%
3회 (75bp) 2.5%
$26,938,302 거래량
$26,938,302 거래량
2026.12.31
0 (0bp)
70%
1회 (25bp)
16%
2회 (50bp)
7%
3회 (75bp)
3%
4회 (100bp)
1%
5회 (125bp)
1%
6회 (150bp)
1%
7회 (175bp)
<1%
8회 (200bp)
<1%
9회 (225bp)
<1%
10회 (250bp)
<1%
11회 (275bp)
<1%
12회 이상 (300bp 이상)
1%
0 (0bp) 70.2%
1회 (25bp) 16%
2회 (50bp) 7%
3회 (75bp) 2.5%
$26,938,302 거래량
$26,938,302 거래량
2026.12.31
0 (0bp)
$4,189,200 거래량
70%
1회 (25bp)
$1,245,187 거래량
16%
2회 (50bp)
$1,204,668 거래량
7%
3회 (75bp)
$1,114,221 거래량
3%
4회 (100bp)
$1,196,612 거래량
1%
5회 (125bp)
$1,418,312 거래량
1%
6회 (150bp)
$2,491,104 거래량
1%
7회 (175bp)
$1,324,495 거래량
<1%
8회 (200bp)
$1,734,268 거래량
<1%
9회 (225bp)
$2,455,381 거래량
<1%
10회 (250bp)
$3,124,147 거래량
<1%
11회 (275bp)
$3,274,765 거래량
<1%
12회 이상 (300bp 이상)
$2,166,128 거래량
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Elevated inflation risks from recent energy price spikes tied to Middle East tensions, alongside resilient labor market data, have anchored trader expectations for no Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026. Market-implied odds now assign a dominant 70.3% probability to zero cuts, reflecting broker forecasts from BofA and Goldman Sachs that push any easing into 2027 amid hotter-than-expected CPI readings and steady consumer spending. With the federal funds rate holding at 3.50%-3.75%, recent FOMC minutes and CME FedWatch pricing underscore a cautious policy stance that prioritizes inflation control over growth support. Upcoming data releases on employment and prices will test whether this consensus holds or allows modest easing later in the year.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
마켓 개설일: Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
거래량
$26,938,302종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Elevated inflation risks from recent energy price spikes tied to Middle East tensions, alongside resilient labor market data, have anchored trader expectations for no Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026. Market-implied odds now assign a dominant 70.3% probability to zero cuts, reflecting broker forecasts from BofA and Goldman Sachs that push any easing into 2027 amid hotter-than-expected CPI readings and steady consumer spending. With the federal funds rate holding at 3.50%-3.75%, recent FOMC minutes and CME FedWatch pricing underscore a cautious policy stance that prioritizes inflation control over growth support. Upcoming data releases on employment and prices will test whether this consensus holds or allows modest easing later in the year.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
거래량
$26,938,302종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Elevated inflation risks from recent energy price spikes tied to Middle East tensions, alongside resilient labor market data, have anchored trader expectations for no Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026. Market-implied odds now assign a dominant 70.3% probability to zero cuts, reflecting broker forecasts from BofA and Goldman Sachs that push any easing into 2027 amid hotter-than-expected CPI readings and steady consumer spending. With the federal funds rate holding at 3.50%-3.75%, recent FOMC minutes and CME FedWatch pricing underscore a cautious policy stance that prioritizes inflation control over growth support. Upcoming data releases on employment and prices will test whether this consensus holds or allows modest easing later in the year.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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