Market-implied odds for zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 stand at 71 percent, driven primarily by persistent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market that have prompted the FOMC to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75 percent through its April meeting. Recent geopolitical developments, including Middle East conflicts that elevated energy prices, have reinforced trader expectations for a cautious policy stance, shifting consensus away from earlier projections of one or two reductions this year. CME FedWatch data and broker forecasts from firms like BofA and Goldman Sachs align with this outlook, highlighting limited scope for easing absent significant cooling in core CPI or notable weakening in employment indicators. Key upcoming catalysts include the May and June FOMC meetings, where fresh inflation and jobs data could influence any reassessment of the rate path.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트0 (0bp) 71.0%
1회 (25bp) 16%
2회 (50bp) 7%
3회 (75bp) 2.7%
$26,863,494 거래량
$26,863,494 거래량
2026.12.31
0 (0bp)
71%
1회 (25bp)
16%
2회 (50bp)
7%
3회 (75bp)
3%
4회 (100bp)
2%
5회 (125bp)
1%
6회 (150bp)
1%
7회 (175bp)
<1%
8회 (200bp)
<1%
9회 (225bp)
<1%
10회 (250bp)
<1%
11회 (275bp)
<1%
12회 이상 (300bp 이상)
1%
0 (0bp) 71.0%
1회 (25bp) 16%
2회 (50bp) 7%
3회 (75bp) 2.7%
$26,863,494 거래량
$26,863,494 거래량
2026.12.31
0 (0bp)
$4,184,818 거래량
71%
1회 (25bp)
$1,244,245 거래량
16%
2회 (50bp)
$1,203,687 거래량
7%
3회 (75bp)
$1,113,699 거래량
3%
4회 (100bp)
$1,194,165 거래량
2%
5회 (125bp)
$1,414,890 거래량
1%
6회 (150bp)
$2,483,573 거래량
1%
7회 (175bp)
$1,322,069 거래량
<1%
8회 (200bp)
$1,725,652 거래량
<1%
9회 (225bp)
$2,449,306 거래량
<1%
10회 (250bp)
$3,115,545 거래량
<1%
11회 (275bp)
$3,262,984 거래량
<1%
12회 이상 (300bp 이상)
$2,148,940 거래량
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Market-implied odds for zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 stand at 71 percent, driven primarily by persistent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market that have prompted the FOMC to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75 percent through its April meeting. Recent geopolitical developments, including Middle East conflicts that elevated energy prices, have reinforced trader expectations for a cautious policy stance, shifting consensus away from earlier projections of one or two reductions this year. CME FedWatch data and broker forecasts from firms like BofA and Goldman Sachs align with this outlook, highlighting limited scope for easing absent significant cooling in core CPI or notable weakening in employment indicators. Key upcoming catalysts include the May and June FOMC meetings, where fresh inflation and jobs data could influence any reassessment of the rate path.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
마켓 개설일: Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
거래량
$26,863,494종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Market-implied odds for zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 stand at 71 percent, driven primarily by persistent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market that have prompted the FOMC to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75 percent through its April meeting. Recent geopolitical developments, including Middle East conflicts that elevated energy prices, have reinforced trader expectations for a cautious policy stance, shifting consensus away from earlier projections of one or two reductions this year. CME FedWatch data and broker forecasts from firms like BofA and Goldman Sachs align with this outlook, highlighting limited scope for easing absent significant cooling in core CPI or notable weakening in employment indicators. Key upcoming catalysts include the May and June FOMC meetings, where fresh inflation and jobs data could influence any reassessment of the rate path.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
거래량
$26,863,494종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Market-implied odds for zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 stand at 71 percent, driven primarily by persistent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market that have prompted the FOMC to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75 percent through its April meeting. Recent geopolitical developments, including Middle East conflicts that elevated energy prices, have reinforced trader expectations for a cautious policy stance, shifting consensus away from earlier projections of one or two reductions this year. CME FedWatch data and broker forecasts from firms like BofA and Goldman Sachs align with this outlook, highlighting limited scope for easing absent significant cooling in core CPI or notable weakening in employment indicators. Key upcoming catalysts include the May and June FOMC meetings, where fresh inflation and jobs data could influence any reassessment of the rate path.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문