Incumbent Democrat Hillary Scholten's commanding position in Michigan's 3rd Congressional District, rated D+4 by Cook Partisan Voting Index, underpins trader consensus implying an 87% probability of a Democratic hold, bolstered by her 54% victories in 2022 and 2024 amid the district's leftward shift—Kamala Harris won it by eight points last cycle. Forecasters maintain Solid Democratic (Cook) or Safe Democratic (Sabato's Crystal Ball) ratings through mid-May 2026, reflecting stable fundamentals absent recent polling. A crowded Republican primary features Ryan Cushman, Terri DeBoer—who announced her TV meteorologist-backed bid in March—and J. Allen Fiorletta ahead of Michigan's open primary on August 4, limiting GOP consolidation prospects in this battleground-leaning seat. Midterm dynamics under President Trump's second term could aid challengers, but incumbency and lean favor Scholten.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.04
Republican Party
43%
Democratic Party
57%
신규
신규
2026.11.04
Republican Party
$163 거래량
43%
Democratic Party
$440 거래량
57%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Hillary Scholten's commanding position in Michigan's 3rd Congressional District, rated D+4 by Cook Partisan Voting Index, underpins trader consensus implying an 87% probability of a Democratic hold, bolstered by her 54% victories in 2022 and 2024 amid the district's leftward shift—Kamala Harris won it by eight points last cycle. Forecasters maintain Solid Democratic (Cook) or Safe Democratic (Sabato's Crystal Ball) ratings through mid-May 2026, reflecting stable fundamentals absent recent polling. A crowded Republican primary features Ryan Cushman, Terri DeBoer—who announced her TV meteorologist-backed bid in March—and J. Allen Fiorletta ahead of Michigan's open primary on August 4, limiting GOP consolidation prospects in this battleground-leaning seat. Midterm dynamics under President Trump's second term could aid challengers, but incumbency and lean favor Scholten.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Dec 16, 2025, 11:59 AM ET
거래량
$603종료일
2026.11.04마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 11:59 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Hillary Scholten's commanding position in Michigan's 3rd Congressional District, rated D+4 by Cook Partisan Voting Index, underpins trader consensus implying an 87% probability of a Democratic hold, bolstered by her 54% victories in 2022 and 2024 amid the district's leftward shift—Kamala Harris won it by eight points last cycle. Forecasters maintain Solid Democratic (Cook) or Safe Democratic (Sabato's Crystal Ball) ratings through mid-May 2026, reflecting stable fundamentals absent recent polling. A crowded Republican primary features Ryan Cushman, Terri DeBoer—who announced her TV meteorologist-backed bid in March—and J. Allen Fiorletta ahead of Michigan's open primary on August 4, limiting GOP consolidation prospects in this battleground-leaning seat. Midterm dynamics under President Trump's second term could aid challengers, but incumbency and lean favor Scholten.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$603종료일
2026.11.04마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 11:59 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Hillary Scholten's commanding position in Michigan's 3rd Congressional District, rated D+4 by Cook Partisan Voting Index, underpins trader consensus implying an 87% probability of a Democratic hold, bolstered by her 54% victories in 2022 and 2024 amid the district's leftward shift—Kamala Harris won it by eight points last cycle. Forecasters maintain Solid Democratic (Cook) or Safe Democratic (Sabato's Crystal Ball) ratings through mid-May 2026, reflecting stable fundamentals absent recent polling. A crowded Republican primary features Ryan Cushman, Terri DeBoer—who announced her TV meteorologist-backed bid in March—and J. Allen Fiorletta ahead of Michigan's open primary on August 4, limiting GOP consolidation prospects in this battleground-leaning seat. Midterm dynamics under President Trump's second term could aid challengers, but incumbency and lean favor Scholten.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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