Jordan Bardella leads trader consensus for the National Rally nomination in France’s 2027 presidential election due to Marine Le Pen’s March 2025 embezzlement conviction and resulting five-year office ban, which remains subject to an appeal decision expected by summer 2026. Recent polls show Bardella capturing 35-38 percent in first-round voting intentions and outperforming Le Pen among party supporters, reflecting his role as party president since 2022 and efforts to broaden the RN’s appeal to moderate and business voters through economic proposals. Municipal election results in March 2026 reinforced the party’s strength in smaller towns, while Le Pen’s potential eligibility hinges on the court ruling. These factors have positioned Bardella as the clear favorite in skin-in-the-game assessments of the nomination race.