Incumbent Republican Diana Harshbarger, seeking a fourth term in the safely Republican TN-01 with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+29, dominates trader consensus at 92.5% implied probability for her party's victory, driven by her unopposed August 6 primary path after rivals withdrew, massive fundraising edge with over $1.8 million cash on hand, and consistent general election landslides exceeding 74% in recent cycles. Recent mid-decade redistricting finalized in May 2026 preserved the district's strong GOP lean in northeast Tennessee, facing a fragmented Democratic primary among Kristi Burke, Herman Garcia, and David Kerr Jr. Scenarios to challenge this include an unexpectedly strong Democratic nominee, incumbent scandal, or national midterm wave, though structural advantages make shifts unlikely ahead of the November 3 general election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$12,202 거래량
$12,202 거래량
2026.11.03
Republican Party
93%
Democratic Party
6%
$12,202 거래량
$12,202 거래량
2026.11.03
Republican Party
$7,982 거래량
93%
Democratic Party
$4,220 거래량
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Diana Harshbarger, seeking a fourth term in the safely Republican TN-01 with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+29, dominates trader consensus at 92.5% implied probability for her party's victory, driven by her unopposed August 6 primary path after rivals withdrew, massive fundraising edge with over $1.8 million cash on hand, and consistent general election landslides exceeding 74% in recent cycles. Recent mid-decade redistricting finalized in May 2026 preserved the district's strong GOP lean in northeast Tennessee, facing a fragmented Democratic primary among Kristi Burke, Herman Garcia, and David Kerr Jr. Scenarios to challenge this include an unexpectedly strong Democratic nominee, incumbent scandal, or national midterm wave, though structural advantages make shifts unlikely ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
거래량
$12,202종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Diana Harshbarger, seeking a fourth term in the safely Republican TN-01 with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+29, dominates trader consensus at 92.5% implied probability for her party's victory, driven by her unopposed August 6 primary path after rivals withdrew, massive fundraising edge with over $1.8 million cash on hand, and consistent general election landslides exceeding 74% in recent cycles. Recent mid-decade redistricting finalized in May 2026 preserved the district's strong GOP lean in northeast Tennessee, facing a fragmented Democratic primary among Kristi Burke, Herman Garcia, and David Kerr Jr. Scenarios to challenge this include an unexpectedly strong Democratic nominee, incumbent scandal, or national midterm wave, though structural advantages make shifts unlikely ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$12,202종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Diana Harshbarger, seeking a fourth term in the safely Republican TN-01 with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+29, dominates trader consensus at 92.5% implied probability for her party's victory, driven by her unopposed August 6 primary path after rivals withdrew, massive fundraising edge with over $1.8 million cash on hand, and consistent general election landslides exceeding 74% in recent cycles. Recent mid-decade redistricting finalized in May 2026 preserved the district's strong GOP lean in northeast Tennessee, facing a fragmented Democratic primary among Kristi Burke, Herman Garcia, and David Kerr Jr. Scenarios to challenge this include an unexpectedly strong Democratic nominee, incumbent scandal, or national midterm wave, though structural advantages make shifts unlikely ahead of the November 3 general election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문