Redistricting last year transformed Texas's 32nd district into a Republican-leaning seat with an R+8 partisan voting index, shifting it from Democratic control after the prior incumbent relocated to another district. This structural change, combined with a crowded Republican primary that produced Jace Yarbrough as the nominee following Ryan Binkley's withdrawal, has consolidated GOP support ahead of the November general election. Yarbrough's endorsement by President Trump further bolsters his position in the redrawn North Texas district stretching toward East Texas. Traders' consensus reflects these factors through the Republican Party's 56 percent implied probability, though the outcome remains subject to turnout patterns and national midterm dynamics that could influence the final margin.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$26,076 거래량
$26,076 거래량
2026.11.04
공화당
74%
민주당
25%
$26,076 거래량
$26,076 거래량
2026.11.04
공화당
$25,719 거래량
74%
민주당
$357 거래량
25%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting last year transformed Texas's 32nd district into a Republican-leaning seat with an R+8 partisan voting index, shifting it from Democratic control after the prior incumbent relocated to another district. This structural change, combined with a crowded Republican primary that produced Jace Yarbrough as the nominee following Ryan Binkley's withdrawal, has consolidated GOP support ahead of the November general election. Yarbrough's endorsement by President Trump further bolsters his position in the redrawn North Texas district stretching toward East Texas. Traders' consensus reflects these factors through the Republican Party's 56 percent implied probability, though the outcome remains subject to turnout patterns and national midterm dynamics that could influence the final margin.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ET
거래량
$26,076종료일
2026.11.04마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting last year transformed Texas's 32nd district into a Republican-leaning seat with an R+8 partisan voting index, shifting it from Democratic control after the prior incumbent relocated to another district. This structural change, combined with a crowded Republican primary that produced Jace Yarbrough as the nominee following Ryan Binkley's withdrawal, has consolidated GOP support ahead of the November general election. Yarbrough's endorsement by President Trump further bolsters his position in the redrawn North Texas district stretching toward East Texas. Traders' consensus reflects these factors through the Republican Party's 56 percent implied probability, though the outcome remains subject to turnout patterns and national midterm dynamics that could influence the final margin.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$26,076종료일
2026.11.04마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting last year transformed Texas's 32nd district into a Republican-leaning seat with an R+8 partisan voting index, shifting it from Democratic control after the prior incumbent relocated to another district. This structural change, combined with a crowded Republican primary that produced Jace Yarbrough as the nominee following Ryan Binkley's withdrawal, has consolidated GOP support ahead of the November general election. Yarbrough's endorsement by President Trump further bolsters his position in the redrawn North Texas district stretching toward East Texas. Traders' consensus reflects these factors through the Republican Party's 56 percent implied probability, though the outcome remains subject to turnout patterns and national midterm dynamics that could influence the final margin.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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