Recent U.S. actions have centered on preparing a federal indictment against former Cuban President Raúl Castro for his alleged role in the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue shootdown, alongside new executive-order sanctions targeting regime-linked entities and officials in energy, defense, and security sectors. These measures reflect escalating pressure on Havana through the Justice Department and Treasury actions without extending criminal proceedings to sitting President Miguel Díaz-Canel. Díaz-Canel’s public condemnations of the sanctions and ongoing diplomatic exchanges have produced no signals from federal prosecutors of charges against the current head of state. Traders therefore assign an 80% implied probability that no federal indictment will occur by the June 30 resolution date, consistent with the pattern of holding former leaders accountable while jurisdictional and diplomatic constraints limit exposure for the incumbent.