Recent diplomatic momentum centers on a US-Iran memorandum of understanding scheduled for signing June 19 at Switzerland’s Bürgenstock resort, a venue proposed by Pakistani and Qatari mediators and accepted by both parties. This follows indirect talks in Geneva earlier in 2026, Oman-mediated sessions in 2025–2026, and Pakistan-hosted Islamabad meetings after the April ceasefire. Switzerland’s long-standing role as a neutral diplomatic hub, combined with the imminent high-level ceremony, underpins its 62% trader consensus. Qatar’s preparatory meetings in Doha this week support its secondary position, while Pakistan’s mediation record explains residual probability. The “no meeting by June 30” share reflects uncertainty over whether the signing triggers further immediate sessions or shifts focus to technical talks.
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Switzerland plunges to 30%35%
On June 19, 2026, the US and Iran are scheduled to sign a memorandum of understanding at the Bürgenstock resort in Switzerland, a location proposed by mediators from Pakistan and Qatar, confirming Switzerland as the venue for the next diplomatic meeting.
US-Iran memorandum of understanding signed at Bürgenstock resort, Switzerland
Switzerland plunges to 47%38%
On June 19, 2026, the US and Iran signed the memorandum of understanding at the Bürgenstock resort in Switzerland, as scheduled. This formal signing marked the next official diplomatic meeting between the two countries, confirming Switzerland as the meeting location and resolving the market accordingly.
US-Iran talks in Switzerland canceled amid Israel-Hezbollah conflict escalation
Switzerland plunges to 30%50%
Planned talks between the US and Iran in Switzerland were abruptly canceled due to deadly attacks exchanged between Israel and Hezbollah, causing uncertainty about the diplomatic process and impacting market confidence.
US and Iran sign memorandum of understanding at Bürgenstock resort in Switzerland
The US and Iran formally signed the memorandum of understanding at the Bürgenstock resort in Switzerland, confirming Switzerland as the venue for the next diplomatic meeting and resolving the market accordingly.
Iranian Foreign Minister emphasizes terms of US-Iran memorandum including Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon
Switzerland drops to 71%11%
Iran's foreign minister publicly discussed the agreement reached with the US, emphasizing terms such as the removal of Israeli forces from Lebanon, reinforcing the seriousness and official nature of the diplomatic process culminating in the Switzerland meeting.
Swiss Foreign Ministry confirms Switzerland as venue for US-Iran peace deal signing
Switzerland surges to 86%70%
The Swiss Federal Department of Foreign Affairs confirmed that Switzerland is acting as a facilitator for the US-Iran peace deal signing scheduled for June 19 in Bürgenstock, Switzerland. The location was proposed by Pakistani and Qatari mediators as well as the US and Iran, reinforcing market confidence in Switzerland as the meeting location.
Tehran and Washington finalize memorandum of understanding to end war, Qatar welcomes deal
Switzerland surges to 70%44%
The US and Iran announced finalization of an MoU ending the war and US naval blockade, with Qatar's Foreign Ministry expressing support, boosting market prices for Switzerland and Qatar as meeting venues and collapsing prices for no meeting and Pakistan.
Pakistan's Prime Minister announces peace deal and signing ceremony in Switzerland
Switzerland surges to 86%70%
Pakistan's Prime Minister announced a peace deal between the US and Iran ending military operations, confirmed by President Trump. This major diplomatic breakthrough led to a sharp rise in market prices for meetings by June 19 and beyond, solidifying Switzerland as the meeting location.
US-Iran peace deal announced; signing ceremony in Switzerland confirmed
Switzerland surges to 85%19%
On June 15, 2026, US President Donald Trump announced a peace deal with Iran ending military operations, confirmed by Iranian officials. The signing ceremony was confirmed to take place in Switzerland, further solidifying market confidence in Switzerland as the location of the next diplomatic meeting.
Pakistan Prime Minister announces US-Iran peace deal to be signed in Switzerland on June 19
Switzerland surges to 72%32%
Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced that a peace deal between the US and Iran has been reached and will be officially signed in Switzerland on June 19, confirming Switzerland as the next diplomatic meeting location.
US stock market rallies on reports of preliminary US-Iran peace framework
Qatar surges to 51%46%
Financial markets reacted positively to news of a preliminary diplomatic framework between the US and Iran, reflecting increased confidence in a diplomatic meeting occurring soon, particularly in Switzerland and Qatar.
US and Iran agree to sign ceasefire framework in Geneva
Switzerland surges to 70%45%
On June 14, 2026, reports indicated that US and Iranian officials planned to sign a ceasefire framework agreement in Geneva, Switzerland, marking a historic diplomatic meeting. This news caused a sharp increase in market confidence for Switzerland as the meeting location, with prices jumping significantly.
US-Iran negotiations enter critical phase with potential framework agreement
Switzerland jumps to 26%5%
Multiple reports confirmed significant progress toward a memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran, increasing market optimism for a diplomatic meeting in Switzerland and Qatar, and reducing the likelihood of no meeting by June 30.
US and Iran announce diplomatic breakthrough and agreement to reopen Strait of Hormuz
Switzerland surges to 76%53%
The US and Iran reached a preliminary agreement including reopening the Strait of Hormuz and scheduled a signing of a memorandum of understanding in Switzerland. This caused a sharp increase in market confidence for Switzerland as the meeting location.
US and Iran reach agreement to reopen Strait of Hormuz and sign ceasefire framework in Switzerland
Switzerland surges to 70%47%
On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a diplomatic breakthrough with an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and a scheduled signing of a memorandum of understanding in Switzerland, sharply increasing market confidence in Switzerland as the meeting location.
US and Iran Reach Preliminary Peace Agreement
Switzerland surges to 70%47%
On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a preliminary memorandum of understanding establishing a ceasefire and paving the way for further negotiations. This major breakthrough sharply boosted market optimism for a diplomatic meeting and peace deal.
US and Iran announce peace deal with signing scheduled in Switzerland
Switzerland surges to 86%70%
Reports emerged that US and Iranian officials planned to sign a ceasefire framework agreement in Geneva, Switzerland, marking a historic diplomatic meeting. This caused a sharp increase in market confidence for Switzerland as the meeting location, with prices jumping significantly.
US and Iran signal peace deal near as negotiations focus on Hormuz Strait and sanctions
Switzerland surges to 43%41%
Reports indicated that the US and Iran were close to an agreement to end the war, focusing on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and lifting the US naval blockade, boosting market confidence in a near-term diplomatic meeting, especially in neutral venues like Switzerland.
Iran publishes 14-point Memorandum of Understanding draft with US
No Meeting by June 30 surges to 24%17%
On June 12, 2026, Iran publicly released a 14-point draft Memorandum of Understanding it was negotiating with the US, outlining ceasefire extension, sanctions relief, and nuclear talks framework. This transparency indicated growing momentum toward a potential agreement but did not confirm an imminent meeting location.
President Trump ends meeting without final decision on Iran deal
No Meeting by June 30 drops to 33%8%
President Trump concluded a White House meeting without announcing a final determination on whether to approve the Iran deal, maintaining uncertainty about near-term diplomatic meetings and causing market skepticism.
US and Iran reach tentative agreement amid ongoing tensions
Switzerland jumps to 11%6%
On May 28, 2026, US officials announced a tentative agreement had been reached in talks with Iran, including lifting restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz and starting a 60-day negotiation period on Iran’s nuclear program. President Trump had not yet signed off, and Iranian officials had not commented, causing some market volatility.
US and Iran reach tentative memorandum of understanding to extend ceasefire and start nuclear talks
Pakistan surges to 65%19%
US and Iranian negotiators reportedly agreed on a preliminary MOU to extend the ceasefire for 60 days and begin nuclear negotiations, though final approval by President Trump was pending. This raised hopes for diplomatic meetings.
Iranian delegation meets Qatari officials in Doha for US-Iran talks
Qatar rises to 7%1%
Senior Iranian officials traveled to Qatar to discuss ongoing negotiations aimed at ending the US-Israel war on Iran. This diplomatic activity sustained market optimism for a diplomatic meeting by June 30 and beyond.
Iranian delegation visits Qatar for talks on US ceasefire extension and peace deal
Qatar rises to 7%1%
Senior Iranian officials traveled to Doha for negotiations on ending the war with the US, reflecting Qatar's role as a key mediator alongside Pakistan. This event increased market optimism for Qatar as a potential meeting location.
US and Iran continue diplomatic talks amid elevated military presence in Middle East
Despite ongoing military tensions, the US and Iran remained engaged in high-level diplomatic discussions, maintaining market interest in a meeting but with uncertainty about location, keeping prices for multiple venues active.
US and Iran Near Framework Agreement to End War
US and Iranian officials, with mediation from Qatar and Pakistan, indicated progress toward a framework agreement to end the war, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This positive diplomatic development increased market confidence in a forthcoming meeting.
US and Iranian officials suggest nearing framework agreement after Qatar and Pakistan mediation
Qatar rises to 8%2%
Following talks mediated by Qatar and Pakistan in Tehran, US and Iranian officials indicated progress toward a framework agreement to end the war, briefly increasing optimism for future diplomatic meetings and slightly boosting Qatar's market price.
President Trump announces near agreement and Strait of Hormuz reopening
Switzerland rises to 5%2%
On May 23, 2026, President Trump announced that an agreement with Iran had been largely negotiated and that the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened, signaling significant progress in talks. This announcement boosted market confidence for diplomatic meetings by later dates, especially increasing optimism for Switzerland and Qatar as meeting locations.
President Trump announces major progress in US-Iran talks and reopening of Strait of Hormuz
Switzerland surges to 72%22%
Trump declared that an agreement with Iran had been largely negotiated, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz, boosting market confidence for diplomatic meetings, especially in Switzerland and Qatar.
Trump announces largely negotiated agreement and reopening of Strait of Hormuz
Pakistan jumps to 66%13%
President Trump announced on May 23, 2026, that an agreement with Iran had been largely negotiated, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This announcement boosted market optimism for diplomatic meetings and peace talks, reflecting significant progress in negotiations.
President Trump announces significant progress in US-Iran talks and Strait of Hormuz reopening
Switzerland jumps to 9%7%
On May 23, 2026, President Trump announced that an agreement with Iran had been largely negotiated and that the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened, signaling significant progress in diplomatic talks. This announcement increased market optimism for diplomatic meetings, especially in neutral venues like Switzerland and Qatar.
Trump says Iran peace deal largely negotiated, meeting with US negotiators planned
Pakistan jumps to 65%12%
President Trump announced he would meet with US negotiators to decide on Iran's ceasefire proposal, signaling potential progress and boosting optimism for diplomatic meetings, especially in Pakistan.
President Trump announces largely negotiated agreement with Iran and reopening of Strait of Hormuz
Switzerland rises to 4%3%
On May 23, 2026, President Trump announced that an agreement with Iran had been largely negotiated, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This boosted optimism for a diplomatic meeting and increased confidence in Switzerland as the venue, while Pakistan's likelihood declined.
Pakistan's army chief holds key meetings in Tehran amid mediation efforts
Pakistan jumps to 56%14%
Pakistan's army chief Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir met with Iranian leaders in Tehran to advance mediation efforts for US-Iran dialogue. This reinforced Pakistan's role as mediator but also highlighted ongoing tensions, influencing market dynamics around Pakistan and other venues.
President Trump announces near-complete agreement with Iran including reopening Strait of Hormuz
Switzerland surges to 86%36%
President Trump announced that an agreement with Iran had been largely negotiated, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz, boosting optimism for a diplomatic meeting and increasing confidence in Switzerland and Qatar as potential venues.
President Trump announces agreement largely negotiated and Strait of Hormuz reopening
Switzerland surges to 50%21%
On May 23, 2026, President Trump announced significant progress in negotiations with Iran, including plans to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, boosting market confidence in an imminent diplomatic meeting and peace deal.
US and Iran make progress on framework agreement, mediated by Qatar and Pakistan
Qatar rises to 9%3%
On May 23, 2026, US and Iranian officials, with mediation from Qatar and Pakistan, indicated progress toward a framework agreement to end the war, boosting optimism for diplomatic meetings in these countries.
US imposes naval blockade on Iran after failed Islamabad talks
Pakistan plunges to 38%29%
Following the failure of the Islamabad Talks, the US imposed a naval blockade on Iran, increasing tensions and reducing market confidence in near-term diplomatic meetings in Pakistan.
US lead negotiators Kushner and Witkoff travel to Pakistan for talks
Pakistan dips to 63%2%
On April 24, 2026, US lead negotiators Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff traveled to Islamabad to resume negotiations with Iranian officials, signaling continued diplomatic efforts in Pakistan. This maintained market interest in Pakistan as a meeting location despite some Iranian officials denying planned meetings there.
US lead negotiators Witkoff and Kushner return to Islamabad for resumed talks
Pakistan drops to 65%11%
On April 24, 2026, US special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner returned to Islamabad to resume negotiations with Iranian officials, signaling continued diplomatic efforts in Pakistan. However, Iranian officials denied plans for a meeting there, maintaining uncertainty about the meeting location.
US special envoys Witkoff and Kushner return to Islamabad for resumed talks
Pakistan plunges to 1%51%
US lead negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner traveled to Islamabad to resume negotiations with Iranian officials, signaling continued diplomatic efforts in Pakistan. However, Iranian officials denied plans for a meeting in Pakistan, maintaining uncertainty about the meeting location.
US envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff travel to Pakistan for renewed talks with Iran
US special envoys returned to Islamabad to resume negotiations with Iranian officials, signaling continued diplomatic efforts in Pakistan. This maintained market interest in Pakistan as the meeting location despite Iranian denials of planned meetings there.
Reports confirm second round of US-Iran talks planned in Islamabad
Pakistan rises to 67%3%
Reports indicated that US and Iranian delegations would meet again in Islamabad, reinforcing Pakistan's role as mediator and the market's initial high probability for Pakistan as meeting location.
Pakistani delegation visits Tehran to discuss second round of talks
Pakistan jumps to 62%5%
Pakistan's military chief led a delegation to Tehran to deliver a new message from Washington and discuss launching a second round of US-Iran talks, reinforcing Pakistan's role as mediator and sustaining market interest in Islamabad as the next meeting site.
Pakistani Field Marshal Asim Munir visits Tehran to advance peace talks
Pakistan rises to 64%2%
Pakistani mediators intensified diplomatic efforts with a key visit to Tehran, signaling Pakistan's central role and supporting market confidence in Pakistan as the next meeting venue.
Diplomats discuss second round of US-Iran talks with Islamabad and Geneva as possible venues
Pakistan plunges to 62%24%
Following the initial talks, diplomats considered a second round of negotiations potentially in Islamabad or Geneva, sustaining market interest in Pakistan and Switzerland as meeting locations.
Diplomats consider Islamabad and Geneva for next US-Iran talks
Pakistan drops to 79%7%
Following the initial talks, diplomats discussed potential venues for a second round of negotiations, with Islamabad and Geneva being considered. This maintained some market interest in Pakistan and introduced Switzerland as a possible location.
US imposes naval blockade on Iran after Islamabad talks fail
Pakistan plunges to 63%20%
Following the failure of the Islamabad Talks, US President Donald Trump imposed a naval blockade on Iran, escalating tensions and complicating diplomatic prospects. This event caused a drop in Pakistan's market price and increased uncertainty about future meeting locations.
Discussions underway for second round of US-Iran talks in Islamabad or Geneva
Pakistan dips to 83%3%
Following the initial talks, diplomats worked through back channels to arrange a new round of peace talks, with Islamabad and Geneva considered as possible venues, sustaining market interest in Pakistan.
US officials discuss potential second in-person meeting with Iran before ceasefire expiry
Pakistan plunges to 62%25%
Following the Islamabad Talks, US officials considered a second in-person meeting with Iranian officials before the ceasefire expired on April 21, raising hopes for continued diplomacy and influencing market prices.
US and Iran hold high-level talks in Islamabad, Pakistan
The US and Iranian delegations met in Islamabad for intensive negotiations aimed at stabilizing the ceasefire and exploring diplomatic solutions. This event marked Pakistan as a key mediator and venue, initially boosting market confidence in Pakistan as the meeting location.
Pakistan mediates ongoing US-Iran peace negotiations amid war damage talks
Pakistan surges to 86%34%
Diplomatic delegations, mediated by Pakistan, were actively modifying a peace framework to end the US-Iran war, focusing on compensation, sanctions, and maritime control. This reinforced Pakistan's role as a key diplomatic venue, supporting high market prices for Pakistan early in the window.
US military announces naval blockade on Iran after failed Islamabad talks
Pakistan plunges to 69%18%
Following the failure of the Islamabad talks to reach an agreement, the US imposed a naval blockade on Iran, escalating tensions and reducing optimism for immediate diplomatic progress. This contributed to a decline in market confidence for near-term meetings in Pakistan and other venues.
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