Traders assign a near-certain probability against James Comey departing the United States by May 15 because no official statements, legal requirements, or credible public developments have indicated any planned exit. As a private citizen following his service as FBI director, Comey maintains domestic residency and professional activities without known diplomatic appointments, extradition proceedings, or personal circumstances that would compel relocation within the resolution window. Historical patterns for former senior officials show sustained U.S.-based engagement unless specific international roles emerge. The only remaining variables capable of shifting this outcome would involve sudden, unannounced personal health developments or unforeseen foreign opportunities arising after the cutoff, neither of which has appeared in verified reporting.