Trader consensus favors no U.S. ground invasion of Iran before 2027 at 72.5%, driven by accelerating diplomatic efforts to end the three-month air campaign launched by U.S. and Israeli strikes on February 28. Recent developments include a U.S. one-page proposal for reopening the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear moratorium, discussed as of May 7, with Tehran signaling a response amid ongoing Hormuz clashes. President Trump's Beijing summit with Xi Jinping on May 13 underscores focus on de-escalation over escalation, despite Pentagon contingency plans for ground operations remaining unapproved. Iran's Gulf state strikes and internal pressures have not triggered boots-on-the-ground commitment, as air operations have degraded key military and nuclear assets without full invasion. Upcoming Iranian replies and congressional war cost scrutiny further temper invasion risks.