The expiration of enhanced ACA premium tax credits at the end of 2025, following Senate failure to advance extension legislation despite House passage of a multi-year measure, has anchored trader expectations that the subsidies will remain unextended through the immediate resolution window. This legislative impasse aligns with current polling averages showing Democrats holding consistent leads in the generic congressional ballot and favored to secure House majority control in the November 2026 midterms. The 92 percent market pricing on the combined “Not Extended & Democratic Party” outcome reflects the wisdom of crowds assessing these concurrent barriers to extension and electoral math. Late-session negotiations or an unexpected narrowing of the House margin in final weeks represent the main paths that could still alter probabilities before election day.