The Bank of Russia’s next key rate decision on 11 September 2026 follows the July cut of 25 basis points to 14%, the latest in a measured easing cycle from the 2025 peak of 21%. Current trader pricing—favoring no change at 62.5% over a further reduction at 37.5%—reflects the central bank’s updated forecasts showing 2026 inflation at 6–7% due to temporary fuel-price spikes from Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries, alongside more expansionary fiscal policy and elevated inflation expectations. Underlying inflation measures remain closer to 4–5%, while economic growth has moderated with signs of contraction and decelerating lending, prompting business calls for relief. A hike remains improbable given the disinflationary backdrop and recent communications signaling gradual easing only if price pressures prove transitory.