Incumbent Representative Mike Thompson seeks renomination in California's 4th congressional district primary on June 2, facing Democratic challenger Eric Jones alongside a crowded Republican field that includes Sharon Brown, Mandy Ghusar, and Jimih Jones. The nonpartisan top-two format advances the two highest vote-getters to the November general, where the district's strong Democratic tilt and Thompson's 28-year incumbency create structural advantages. Candidate filing closed in March with no late entries or major endorsements reported since, leaving fundraising records and voter turnout in the Napa Valley and North Bay counties as key variables. Historical patterns of low primary turnout and fragmented opposition support consolidation around the sitting member ahead of the general election.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano$30,130 Wol.
Jun 2, 2026
Mike Thompson
97%
Eric Jones
90%
Heath Fulkerson
11%
John Wesley Tyler
8%
Trevor Merrell
6%
Laurie MacKenzie
5%
Sharon Brown
2%
Mandy Ghusar
<1%
$30,130 Wol.
Mike Thompson
$7,192 Wol.
97%
Eric Jones
$4,925 Wol.
90%
Heath Fulkerson
$396 Wol.
11%
John Wesley Tyler
$894 Wol.
8%
Trevor Merrell
$9,889 Wol.
6%
Laurie MacKenzie
$710 Wol.
5%
Sharon Brown
$3,429 Wol.
2%
Mandy Ghusar
$2,695 Wol.
<1%
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Representative Mike Thompson seeks renomination in California's 4th congressional district primary on June 2, facing Democratic challenger Eric Jones alongside a crowded Republican field that includes Sharon Brown, Mandy Ghusar, and Jimih Jones. The nonpartisan top-two format advances the two highest vote-getters to the November general, where the district's strong Democratic tilt and Thompson's 28-year incumbency create structural advantages. Candidate filing closed in March with no late entries or major endorsements reported since, leaving fundraising records and voter turnout in the Napa Valley and North Bay counties as key variables. Historical patterns of low primary turnout and fragmented opposition support consolidation around the sitting member ahead of the general election.
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rynek otwarty: Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ET
Wolumen
$30,130Data zakończenia
Jun 2, 2026Rynek otwarty
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Representative Mike Thompson seeks renomination in California's 4th congressional district primary on June 2, facing Democratic challenger Eric Jones alongside a crowded Republican field that includes Sharon Brown, Mandy Ghusar, and Jimih Jones. The nonpartisan top-two format advances the two highest vote-getters to the November general, where the district's strong Democratic tilt and Thompson's 28-year incumbency create structural advantages. Candidate filing closed in March with no late entries or major endorsements reported since, leaving fundraising records and voter turnout in the Napa Valley and North Bay counties as key variables. Historical patterns of low primary turnout and fragmented opposition support consolidation around the sitting member ahead of the general election.
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Wolumen
$30,130Data zakończenia
Jun 2, 2026Rynek otwarty
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Incumbent Representative Mike Thompson seeks renomination in California's 4th congressional district primary on June 2, facing Democratic challenger Eric Jones alongside a crowded Republican field that includes Sharon Brown, Mandy Ghusar, and Jimih Jones. The nonpartisan top-two format advances the two highest vote-getters to the November general, where the district's strong Democratic tilt and Thompson's 28-year incumbency create structural advantages. Candidate filing closed in March with no late entries or major endorsements reported since, leaving fundraising records and voter turnout in the Napa Valley and North Bay counties as key variables. Historical patterns of low primary turnout and fragmented opposition support consolidation around the sitting member ahead of the general election.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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