The escalation of the Middle East conflict has sharply lifted energy prices and pushed Eurozone inflation forecasts for 2026 to around 2.6 percent, well above the ECB’s 2 percent target. Recent Governing Council meetings have kept the deposit facility rate steady at 2 percent while highlighting upside inflation risks and second-round effects. Hawkish signals from multiple officials, including expectations of a June tightening, have reinforced market pricing for at least one 25-basis-point increase before year-end. With inflation now projected to remain elevated through much of 2026, traders assign a 92 percent probability that the ECB will deliver a rate hike this year.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoECB rate hike in 2026?
ECB rate hike in 2026?
$114,274 Wol.
$114,274 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
$114,274 Wol.
$114,274 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The escalation of the Middle East conflict has sharply lifted energy prices and pushed Eurozone inflation forecasts for 2026 to around 2.6 percent, well above the ECB’s 2 percent target. Recent Governing Council meetings have kept the deposit facility rate steady at 2 percent while highlighting upside inflation risks and second-round effects. Hawkish signals from multiple officials, including expectations of a June tightening, have reinforced market pricing for at least one 25-basis-point increase before year-end. With inflation now projected to remain elevated through much of 2026, traders assign a 92 percent probability that the ECB will deliver a rate hike this year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ET
Wolumen
$114,274Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The escalation of the Middle East conflict has sharply lifted energy prices and pushed Eurozone inflation forecasts for 2026 to around 2.6 percent, well above the ECB’s 2 percent target. Recent Governing Council meetings have kept the deposit facility rate steady at 2 percent while highlighting upside inflation risks and second-round effects. Hawkish signals from multiple officials, including expectations of a June tightening, have reinforced market pricing for at least one 25-basis-point increase before year-end. With inflation now projected to remain elevated through much of 2026, traders assign a 92 percent probability that the ECB will deliver a rate hike this year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$114,274Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The escalation of the Middle East conflict has sharply lifted energy prices and pushed Eurozone inflation forecasts for 2026 to around 2.6 percent, well above the ECB’s 2 percent target. Recent Governing Council meetings have kept the deposit facility rate steady at 2 percent while highlighting upside inflation risks and second-round effects. Hawkish signals from multiple officials, including expectations of a June tightening, have reinforced market pricing for at least one 25-basis-point increase before year-end. With inflation now projected to remain elevated through much of 2026, traders assign a 92 percent probability that the ECB will deliver a rate hike this year.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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